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Tag: Leading Edge

Bright prospects ahead for construction. That’s the forecasters’ view

Bright prospects ahead for construction. That’s the forecasters’ view

UK construction by 2018 will have witnessed a five-year growth spurt not seen since the 1980s. That’s what is suggested by the majority verdict among the latest batch of industry forecasts. Taking Construction Products Association forecast numbers, from 2013 to 2018 the industry output will have expanded by a quarter. Only in the post-War era up to the 1960s and in the late 1980s did construction enjoy growth of that magnitude over a five-year period. This will, if it happens,…

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More optimism, some caution, as all main industry forecasts see construction bounce back

More optimism, some caution, as all main industry forecasts see construction bounce back

Two more construction forecasts came out over the past week that added to the consensus that suggests construction is set for strong growth up to the General Election. Indeed, with the exception of the Hewes forecast, the view is that strong growth will continue well after 2015. The Hewes forecast tends to embrace more of the downside risks and in that respect charts a more cautious approach to potential growth. On that basis it seems reasonable to assume that it…

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Forecasters see strong growth for construction – but, then again, the General Election is coming…

Forecasters see strong growth for construction – but, then again, the General Election is coming…

The latest industry forecast will put a smile on the face of the UK construction folk. The recovery is now expected to move faster having arrived earlier than forecasters expected just three months ago. The Construction Products Association now expects to see growth in 2013 of 1% instead of the slight decline it forecast three months ago. It has also raised its forecast for 2014 to 3.4% against 2.7%. Its 2015 forecast was raised from 4.6% to very strong 5.2%….

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Construction forecasters get more pessimistic – the difference a year makes

Construction forecasters get more pessimistic – the difference a year makes

It’s that time of year when we look at forecasts and wonder just how bad or good the future will be for the construction industry. The top graph shows the latest prognostications and they look pretty miserable in the short term. The forecasters have nudged down their expectations, some lightly, some heavily, which means they now expect things to be worse than when they last forecast. The overall picture they paint is of another year or possibly two of recession…

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Why is confidence rising in the construction industry when it appears set for recession?

Why is confidence rising in the construction industry when it appears set for recession?

I have noted from conversations I have had recently a more confident air about the future within construction this side of the New Year. And the latest Markit/CIPS survey seems to add to this anecdotal evidence with its finding that confidence in the sector in January improved “to the second-strongest degree in the survey history to reach the highest since May 2011”. I’m not sure what that actually means in numbers but it sounds like a lot of improvement.

Forecasters shade down expectations for construction on private sector growth fears

Forecasters shade down expectations for construction on private sector growth fears

The prospects for construction are worsening, that’s the picture painted by the latest set of main industry forecasts. Even the least pessimistic of the forecasts, from Leading Edge, at best suggests the industry now looks to be facing two years of a second dip into recession. Hewes, which remains the most pessimistic of the forecasters, finds little reason to suggest that the industry will still be plunging in 2013, while the Construction Products Association forecasters reckon the industry will not…

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Experian shades up its construction forecast as public investment holds up better than expected

Experian shades up its construction forecast as public investment holds up better than expected

I was wrong. Not all the construction forecasts are being revised down this time around. Experian has slightly lifted its expectations for construction growth for this year and next compared with its summer forecast. In the summer it was looking at a fall of 2.6% and 3.5% for this year and next, those expectations are now smaller falls of 2.1% and 3.3%. This is despite a lower forecast for GDP growth. Experian had revised its summer forecast quite a bit. And…

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First of autumn forecasts downgrades construction prospects

First of autumn forecasts downgrades construction prospects

Be prepared for a slower recovery than we were expecting – that’s that message from the first of autumn construction forecasts to emerge. Leading Edge had already penned in a double-dip recession for construction when it last produced a forecast in March, but now it expects the fall to be deeper and the recovery to be slower.

Forecasters shade up their estimates for construction output

Forecasters shade up their estimates for construction output

The latest forecasts have been released for construction and, while it may not look like it, they are a shade more optimistic than they were at the tail end of last year. That said the picture remains broadly the same, with the industry heading into a second dip of recession before increased buoyancy in the private sector replaces falling public sector funding and drags construction back into growth.