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Tag: public spending

Bright prospects ahead for construction. That’s the forecasters’ view

Bright prospects ahead for construction. That’s the forecasters’ view

UK construction by 2018 will have witnessed a five-year growth spurt not seen since the 1980s. That’s what is suggested by the majority verdict among the latest batch of industry forecasts. Taking Construction Products Association forecast numbers, from 2013 to 2018 the industry output will have expanded by a quarter. Only in the post-War era up to the 1960s and in the late 1980s did construction enjoy growth of that magnitude over a five-year period. This will, if it happens,…

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Déjà vu, predictability and the challenge to fill the construction skills gap

Déjà vu, predictability and the challenge to fill the construction skills gap

UK construction needs 44,690 new recruits a year for the next four years at least, says CITB following its Construction Skills Network research. Last year it put the estimated annual recruitment requirement at 36,400. The year before, it estimated 29,050. The pressure seems to be growing. Set this against the 7,280 apprentices completing in England in 2013 and the picture looks really rather depressing. It’s hard not to be maddened by the inevitability of this rapidly growing workforce problem. I’ve…

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George, if you are dredging dodgy policy ideas from old blogs, get the timing right

George, if you are dredging dodgy policy ideas from old blogs, get the timing right

“20% discount on your first home announces PM” reads the press release headline describing one of David Cameron and George Osborne’s latest moves to keep their mitts on the tiller of power. Ostensibly it’s a new bold initiative to give a leg up to 100,000 wannabe first-time buyers. Desirable, you might think. In reality we all know it’s yet another policy aimed at a key but unsettled element of the electorate to ease fears about their potential or the potential…

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A £20 billion repair bill to fix the UK construction industry after the recession

A £20 billion repair bill to fix the UK construction industry after the recession

Just what has been the cost to construction of the recession? Could and should policymakers have made the slump in activity less painful? Were there better policy options? These questions need desperate attention. Mistakes were made. Bad and avoidable mistakes, in my view. Lessons must be learned. Construction is a strategic industry. Having a construction industry is not an option for any nation. That makes it special, like health, education or defence. Recessions can disproportionately hit construction. The damage, however, will…

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Where I dream that Lyons are taming a political jungle strangling housing… and wake up

Where I dream that Lyons are taming a political jungle strangling housing… and wake up

The Lyons Housing Review was published today. After a speed read, I’m left pretty impressed with its analysis of the problems facing housing in England. Indeed, my spirits were lifted even as I read the contents pages by phrases such as “positive planning”, “greater transparency about the land market”, “proactive land assembly”. This is not yet another report where planning is portrayed as some evil dead hand restricting activity, but rather as it should be – a tool to get…

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Government must plan and act as if in the longer-term construction matters

Government must plan and act as if in the longer-term construction matters

In business certainty is a good thing. It may be less exciting for the crisis-management junkies we seem to be in Britain, but it helps us be more efficient. There is however one certainty that is painful to experience. This is the certainty that an action or lack of action will lead to an unnecessarily destructive outcome. Today the RICS launched its quarterly construction market survey. Its headline: “Private sector continues to provide forward momentum.” It’s all pretty predictable stuff….

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More a house-building recovery than a construction recovery – so far at least

More a house-building recovery than a construction recovery – so far at least

Construction output grew 0.6% in the first quarter of this year. That’s up on an earlier estimate of 0.3% in the first release of the GDP figures. Work done in the first three month was 5.4% more than in the same period a year earlier. That’s the very encouraging headline story from the latest ONS construction output data. And we can be more encouraged given the iffier-than-normal weather at the start of this year. This provides reasons to think that…

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The sorry side of the upswing in construction and why posturing politicians got it wrong again

The sorry side of the upswing in construction and why posturing politicians got it wrong again

For me there’s something dreadfully sad about the timing of the Government’s announcement that it is backing £36 billion worth of planned investment for 2014 and 2015. It will, say the Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer, support 150,000 construction jobs. This should be greeted with unfettered joy. But I’m afraid I can’t see it that way. How do I see it? Well imagine Government leading a construction industry motorcade, ignoring the road ahead, too busy scanning the crowd…

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Cracks are already appearing in the Government strategy on the building materials trade gap

Cracks are already appearing in the Government strategy on the building materials trade gap

The construction industry imports about 10% of its output value in building materials and seems to have done all my adult life at least. Admittedly the figures are a bit ropey, but the pattern looks pretty clear from the top graph. This is important, because the Government’s rather suspect industrial strategy (pdf) for construction has as one of its big targets a 50% cut in the building materials trade gap by 2025. Looking at the current data I reckon that means,…

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Forecasters see strong growth for construction – but, then again, the General Election is coming…

Forecasters see strong growth for construction – but, then again, the General Election is coming…

The latest industry forecast will put a smile on the face of the UK construction folk. The recovery is now expected to move faster having arrived earlier than forecasters expected just three months ago. The Construction Products Association now expects to see growth in 2013 of 1% instead of the slight decline it forecast three months ago. It has also raised its forecast for 2014 to 3.4% against 2.7%. Its 2015 forecast was raised from 4.6% to very strong 5.2%….

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