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Tag: Bank of England

Just how fast is the construction industry growing?

Just how fast is the construction industry growing?

This is a question that’s puzzling plenty of experts in the field at the moment. The trade surveys suggest strong and continued growth. The official data suggests a slowdown recently. So let’s look at the muddle of data. The Construction Products Association earlier this week released the latest Construction Trade Survey, which pulls together a range of survey data from material suppliers, contractors, subcontractors and small builders. Its headline said activity had increased for eight straight quarters. Most of the…

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Questioning data, questioning the value of data, glasshouses and stones

Questioning data, questioning the value of data, glasshouses and stones

Last week’s ONS construction data release caused a few ripples when it showed output dipping in August. It also sparked some sharp criticism from Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit – the people that bring you the PMI surveys. The second paragraph of his commentary reads: “We question the value of the official construction data due to the scale of revisions that occur after data are first release. The signals about the health of the sector and the economy as…

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More optimism, some caution, as all main industry forecasts see construction bounce back

More optimism, some caution, as all main industry forecasts see construction bounce back

Two more construction forecasts came out over the past week that added to the consensus that suggests construction is set for strong growth up to the General Election. Indeed, with the exception of the Hewes forecast, the view is that strong growth will continue well after 2015. The Hewes forecast tends to embrace more of the downside risks and in that respect charts a more cautious approach to potential growth. On that basis it seems reasonable to assume that it…

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Forecasters see strong growth for construction – but, then again, the General Election is coming…

Forecasters see strong growth for construction – but, then again, the General Election is coming…

The latest industry forecast will put a smile on the face of the UK construction folk. The recovery is now expected to move faster having arrived earlier than forecasters expected just three months ago. The Construction Products Association now expects to see growth in 2013 of 1% instead of the slight decline it forecast three months ago. It has also raised its forecast for 2014 to 3.4% against 2.7%. Its 2015 forecast was raised from 4.6% to very strong 5.2%….

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Sustained output growth is just the start of a long recovery for construction

Sustained output growth is just the start of a long recovery for construction

The latest Markit/CIPS survey of construction activity came out yesterday grabbing big headlines and very possibly spectacularly misinforming the general public. The most common interpretation seems to be: “Construction grows at fastest rate for six years.” This is not surprising because it was what the Markit release actually said. I’m not saying this is bonkers, but it would surprise quite a few people if the official construction output figures record the fastest growth in six years in either the third…

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Boom time for construction? The view from Eeyore’s house

Boom time for construction? The view from Eeyore’s house

I feel for pessimists in construction at the moment. It’s really tough times for doom mongers. Every survey is running high, some touting record-breaking numbers. Meanwhile, forecasters are suggesting we are on the threshold of a phase of growth well above the long-term average. My God. It’s boom time. How can you talk that down? Well okay let me have a go. Not because I’m a pessimist (despite the rumours). Things are looking better. And I take a simple view…

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On averages, inequality, energy prices, global warming and the paradox of policy

On averages, inequality, energy prices, global warming and the paradox of policy

In January 2009 Sir Mervyn King, former Governor of the Bank of England, made a speech at a CBI dinner in Nottingham in which he discussed “the paradox of policy”. This speech was delivered at a time of was frenzied speculation and high anxiety over how policy makers were responding to the global financial crisis. He said: “This is the paradox of policy at present – almost any policy measure that is desirable now appears diametrically opposite to the direction…

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Has the Government found a cure for the disease afflicting the housing market?

Has the Government found a cure for the disease afflicting the housing market?

The short answer to the question in the headline is no. The slightly longer answer requires a question: It depends what you mean by the housing market? But, as that sounds like obfuscation, the most honest answer I can come up with is that while the housing market may appear to be in remission the disease is spreading. I say this because we’ve had such a welter of “good news” on the housing front recently that you’d could be forgiven…

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The cost to construction of false optimism

The cost to construction of false optimism

For the past five years this blog has been perceived as a purveyor of doom and gloom and sometimes criticised for being so. I part jokingly retort that I may be gloomy, but I tend to be out-gloomed by reality. Here’s my take in 2008. There is plenty of scope I see now to have been gloomier than I was and not have been unreasonable as things have panned out. But this post does not concern who was right or…

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Positive signs in the RICS housing survey – but nothing to get too excited about

Positive signs in the RICS housing survey – but nothing to get too excited about

Recent surveys of the housing market by the surveyors’ body RICS have become increasingly positive in tone and are finding increasing signs of life. There are some promising signs in the findings for house builders and the construction industry. Inevitably the popular focus falls on price changes, with rises seen as a sign of an improving market. Here the RICS found stability taking the nation as a whole and its members were modestly bullish about the prospect of prices rising…

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