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The latest construction output figures are very disturbing

The latest construction output figures are very disturbing

The graph probably says it all. The construction output figures are looking very disturbing. This will not come as a surprise to many, but the confirmation of fears provides little solace. Yes we can blame the weather. Yes we can note that the figures bounce about a lot. Yes we can find comfort in the possibility of revisions. But as they stand and as far as you can make out from the historic data the figures suggest that construction probably…

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The construction recession will be deeper – that’s the forecasters latest view

The construction recession will be deeper – that’s the forecasters latest view

The latest industry forecasts for construction activity are, as expected, much gloomier than they were as recently ago as last autumn. Both Experian and the Construction Products Association have trimmed their expectations for growth in construction output for this year and next. Experian is estimating a drop of 8.5% for last year on current data followed by a 3.5% drop this year, while CPA expects a 8.8% for 2012 with a of 2.2% for 2013. The graph (right) shows how these compare…

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Output falls as construction faces worrying time over jobs in 2013

Output falls as construction faces worrying time over jobs in 2013

The latest Office for National Statistics construction output figures fit the pattern of an industry is sharp decline. There was a brief pause for optimism last month as the October data provided a lift. But I cautioned last month about reading too much into one month’s data and, as Noble Francis at the Construction Products Associate suggests, this rise may well have been down to a delayed post-Olympic surge. Such a delayed impact is understandable, as there are lags in the output…

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2013 kicks off with some unwelcome bad news for construction

2013 kicks off with some unwelcome bad news for construction

The sharpest drop in construction output since June 2012 is not the snippet of construction data you would want to read with a fresh new year ahead of you and optimism rising like sap in the spring. Sadly that was the first key point from the latest monthly Markit/CIPS construction survey. It is perhaps ironic that it should be the Markit/CIPS survey providing the first bad news of the year, given that historicaly it tends to be more optimistic than most…

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Why job shedding in the UK construction industry may be about to accelerate

Why job shedding in the UK construction industry may be about to accelerate

UK construction industry employed about 57,000 fewer people in the third quarter of this year than a year earlier. That’s a drop of about 2.6%. The ONS data shows that since the peak in September 2007 the fall in the number employed is closer to 380,000. This represents broadly a 15% drop in the workforce. It’s worth noting that these figures are subject to a lot of statistical noise so a few thousand here or there is pretty meaningless. Furthermore…

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UK construction bosses need to make Government face the facts: The industry is in freefall

UK construction bosses need to make Government face the facts: The industry is in freefall

Construction output fell 2.6% in the third quarter of this year. This fall was slightly more than had been expected when the nation’s first estimate of gross domestic product was released. For informed industry watchers this was no surprise. The fact that revisions by the Office for National Statistics to earlier data pushed the recorded level of output down still further was also not a surprise.

Some lessons to learn from the constant downward revisions to construction forecasts

Some lessons to learn from the constant downward revisions to construction forecasts

The recession in construction will be longer and deeper than we thought three months ago. That is the message in the latest set of industry forecasts emerging this month. This may evoke a sense of déjà vu. Each quarter of late the forecasts have darkened. The latest set look pretty bleak as we can see from the graph.

Construction output continues its rapid decline

Construction output continues its rapid decline

There is no getting away from the fact that the construction output data continue to look increasingly scary. If we compare month on month the 12-month total output for construction we see the industry over the past three or four months shrinking by about £1 billion a month, or put another way about 1%. The graph shows the direction of the annualised output.