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Tag: new orders

The official construction figures add to the growing case for cautious optimism

The official construction figures add to the growing case for cautious optimism

The latest construction output figures provide yet more reasons to suspect that the industry may be pulling itself out of its slough. This evidence is reinforced by the release of the newly-constituted new orders figures. The construction output data for July show the index of construction activity has risen to its highest level since last October. This measure, which is seasonally adjusted and deflated to account for price changes, stood in July at 95.5 against 100 in 2010. This may…

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Rise in new orders provides some solace, but they remain at very low levels

Rise in new orders provides some solace, but they remain at very low levels

The latest construction new orders figures will give some solace to some. The need to see growth, any growth, in any construction indicator is desperate. The top graph shows clearly how new orders for construction have fallen over the past few years and how frighteningly low the level remains. I remain a shade concerned over the accuracy of this data series just because it does look so terrible and the implications the figures have for construction output – that which…

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Why we should be cautious about seeing the RICS survey as a signpost to growth in UK construction

Why we should be cautious about seeing the RICS survey as a signpost to growth in UK construction

The press release headline for today’s RICS construction market survey suggests the industry will turn the corner and grow in 2013. That sounds like encouraging news. Sadly, it is probably over optimistic and probably overstates the results of the survey. Sorry to burst one of the all too few happy bubbles you’ll see this year. But there’s a host of reasons to be cautious over the interpretation of the latest survey. The RICS construction survey provides a useful indication of…

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Latest new orders figures cast a long dark shadow over construction

Latest new orders figures cast a long dark shadow over construction

The construction new orders figures released by the Office for National Statistics on Friday suggest a truly scary year or more for the UK industry. We can find some solace in the general rule that it is unwise to take as your guide just one measure of activity in construction, given the trickiness of measuring the industry’s activity. There are much less worrisome measures of construction activity to be found. But let’s consider what conclusions we might draw if we…

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ONS correction to new orders data adds more black eyeliner to a Gothic horror show

ONS correction to new orders data adds more black eyeliner to a Gothic horror show

It would be easy to attack the Office for National Statistics for miscalculating the new orders figures by £1.2 billion for the second quarter of this year. Yes it’s embarrassing for the organisation. The folk there don’t need me or anyone else to tell them that. By all accounts there was a glitch in the system which chucked out a rare error.

Time is running out for construction as private sector new orders run thin

Time is running out for construction as private sector new orders run thin

The latest new orders figures from ONS once digested will inevitably leave the construction industry feeling hungry and wondering where its next meal is coming from. Some will note the quarter-on-quarter rise of 0.2% and the 11.1% rise in the second quarter compared with the same time last year and foolishly suggest this represents improvement. They would be wrong. If you ignore the public sector data (which bounced up slightly in the quarter), the direction of orders was distinctly down quarter…

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Skyscrapers and economic crises revisited. A soothsayer’s perspective on the Shard

Skyscrapers and economic crises revisited. A soothsayer’s perspective on the Shard

I’ve been increasingly worried about the possible collapse of the construction industry into a rather deep recession for some time. I have tended to keep my concerns in check, having gained a reputation for being gloomy. But while it’s tricky to tell accurately with the available data, the new orders figures just don’t seem to be healthy enough to me to support the current level of construction output. Ergo – to my mind at least – a nasty drop in…

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Output data add to worries over private sector weakness as public sector cuts hit workloads

Output data add to worries over private sector weakness as public sector cuts hit workloads

The latest output figures released by the Office for National Statistics on Friday appear to support growing concerns that the decline in construction workload might be accelerating. Analysis of the data suggests that as the decline in public sector work is gathering pace the recovery in the private sector is petering out.