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Bright prospects ahead for construction. That’s the forecasters’ view

Bright prospects ahead for construction. That’s the forecasters’ view

UK construction by 2018 will have witnessed a five-year growth spurt not seen since the 1980s. That’s what is suggested by the majority verdict among the latest batch of industry forecasts. Taking Construction Products Association forecast numbers, from 2013 to 2018 the industry output will have expanded by a quarter. Only in the post-War era up to the 1960s and in the late 1980s did construction enjoy growth of that magnitude over a five-year period. This will, if it happens,…

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Forecasts paint a brighter future for building, but infrastructure data clouds the picture

Forecasts paint a brighter future for building, but infrastructure data clouds the picture

The latest batch of construction industry forecasts out this week paint a brighter picture of growth for building in Britain, but a confused picture for prospects in the infrastructure sector. I’ll turn to the confusion later, but for now it’s safe to say that, taken as a whole, the forecasts reflect and seem to support the general improvement in confidence within construction. Despite recurring concerns over persisting fragility within the global economy, Europe in particular, the Construction Products Association (CPA)…

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Construction recovery stalls, but the forecasts remain bright

Construction recovery stalls, but the forecasts remain bright

The latest official output data from the Office for National Statistics show growth apparently stalling in the second quarter. This may seem at odds with trade surveys and media commentary which tend to point to construction booming. It’s not really. Despite the zero growth recorded by ONS for output in the second quarter of this year, at the risk of doing a Michael Fish, I think we can be confident that the industry is pretty much set on an upward…

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Forecasters see spring in the step of construction with fewer dark clouds on the horizon

Forecasters see spring in the step of construction with fewer dark clouds on the horizon

The latest set of construction forecasts from Experian, the Construction Products Association and Hewes all exude greater confidence than those released at the start of the year. There were few radical changes to the expected numbers above adjustments that would naturally be made to accommodate new data. But the sentiment is more encouraging, with concerns over downside risks easing. Indeed Experian suggest that the balance of risk within its forecast has probably shifted to the upside. The downside risks of…

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More optimism, some caution, as all main industry forecasts see construction bounce back

More optimism, some caution, as all main industry forecasts see construction bounce back

Two more construction forecasts came out over the past week that added to the consensus that suggests construction is set for strong growth up to the General Election. Indeed, with the exception of the Hewes forecast, the view is that strong growth will continue well after 2015. The Hewes forecast tends to embrace more of the downside risks and in that respect charts a more cautious approach to potential growth. On that basis it seems reasonable to assume that it…

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Strengthening data push construction forecasters towards greater optimism

Strengthening data push construction forecasters towards greater optimism

Construction industry forecasters have been busily upgrading their forecasts in the light of a turnaround in industry fortunes since Spring. Despite all raising their expectations for the future path of construction, at first glance the forecasts from Construction Products Association, Experian and Hewes appear to be telling very different stories. That certainly seems to be the take-away message from the graph. In some ways they are telling different tales, but in reality there’s more similarity than meets the eye. One…

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Not much more sun, but fewer black clouds in latest construction industry forecasts

Not much more sun, but fewer black clouds in latest construction industry forecasts

The recent welter of more upbeat economic data has left the numbers in the latest construction industry forecasts pretty much unmoved, with the exception of private housing. The broad view is still that this year will see output fall, between 1.5% and 3.8%, with recovery taking place sometime between the end of this year and sometime next year, depending on which forecast you look at. Excluding private housing, there have been tweaks here and there as the forecasters have adjusted…

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Construction forecasts shaded up, but still predict recession dragging on into 2014

Construction forecasts shaded up, but still predict recession dragging on into 2014

The main industry forecasters have revised up their expectations for the future path of construction output. The revisions from the previous forecast three months or so ago suggest there will be an extra one billion or so pounds worth of work flowing into construction this year than previously expected. Part of this is statistical, as the latest Office for National Statistics data puts the fall in 2012 at less than first thought. But, even so, the forecasters have slightly shaded…

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Construction forecasters get more pessimistic – the difference a year makes

Construction forecasters get more pessimistic – the difference a year makes

It’s that time of year when we look at forecasts and wonder just how bad or good the future will be for the construction industry. The top graph shows the latest prognostications and they look pretty miserable in the short term. The forecasters have nudged down their expectations, some lightly, some heavily, which means they now expect things to be worse than when they last forecast. The overall picture they paint is of another year or possibly two of recession…

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The construction recession will be deeper – that’s the forecasters latest view

The construction recession will be deeper – that’s the forecasters latest view

The latest industry forecasts for construction activity are, as expected, much gloomier than they were as recently ago as last autumn. Both Experian and the Construction Products Association have trimmed their expectations for growth in construction output for this year and next. Experian is estimating a drop of 8.5% for last year on current data followed by a 3.5% drop this year, while CPA expects a 8.8% for 2012 with a of 2.2% for 2013. The graph (right) shows how these compare…

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