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Some room for optimism to be found in the Experian forecast

Some room for optimism to be found in the Experian forecast

The latest Experian forecast on the face of it paints a picture of a rockier road for construction over the coming few years compared with its previous forecast. But on balance it is a slightly more optimistic picture of the path ahead for construction than is suggested by other forecast released recently. The impact of the economic stimulus on construction was perhaps stronger and more immediate than many might have expected and hence the withdrawal of the stimulus and the…

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Forecasters foresee a long road to recovery for construction

Forecasters foresee a long road to recovery for construction

The latest forecast for construction growth to emerge from the Construction Products Association suggests that construction will not see growth of any significance for at least the next two years.  However, while the central projection is for a distinct double-dip in workload, even the most pessimistic scenario presented by the forecasters does not envisage a drop in construction much beyond 5%.  That would be painful but far from as dramatic as the 17% collapse from the peak quarter at the start of 2008…

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Brighter outlook from forecasters, but severe risks remain

Brighter outlook from forecasters, but severe risks remain

The forecasts from Hewes & Associates and Leading Edge sit interestingly against the other winter forecasts for construction output released over the past couple of weeks. They seem to back up the mood among other forecasters that construction workload might not fall as much was feared in the middle of last year. But what is most notable about the various forecasts when we put them together (see graph) is the spread of central projections for the path of construction output….

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Another one for the file marked “Gloom”: What do you mean you haven’t got one yet?

Another one for the file marked “Gloom”: What do you mean you haven’t got one yet?

Many thanks to Mel Budd of Leading Edge who sent me the consultancy’s latest forecast. For simplicity’s sake I have put the base figures for output in a graph with the other industry forecasts. What is striking is the growing consensus that things are looking horrid and there is a lot more worseness on the way.