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Tag: Nationwide

House prices flatline in a fragile market, but what does this mean for construction?

House prices flatline in a fragile market, but what does this mean for construction?

As the various house price indicies trickle in with their indications of what happened to house prices and the housing market in February one thing remains certain – you’d be foolish to draw too many conclusions from them about the likely path ahead. Analysis of the December, January and February data has been clouded by the big freeze in December. And there remains considerable uncertainty over how much the big squeeze from public sector spending cuts has already hit demand…

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1.2 million more dwellings than households – is that right?

1.2 million more dwellings than households – is that right?

The latest chapter of the Social Trends analysis produced by the statistician’s at ONS covers housing. It pulls together familiar data and will tell the cognoscenti little or nothing they don’t already know. But interestingly you don’t have to pass the first graph before widely held assumptions are challenged. It is taken as fact by the overwhelming proportion of politicians and housing professionals that there is a housing shortage. Well here is Figure 1. Pull the numbers apart and we…

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Public sector job cuts and the housing market

Public sector job cuts and the housing market

There has been some rather unsettling data released over recent days for those who fear falling house prices. The latest Bank of England data showed seasonally adjusted mortgage lending falling by 10% in December to a level not seen since May 2009 when the housing market slumped. Nationwide’s house price index showed a further slight fall of 0.1% in January, which when other indicies are considered suggest prices are on a downward path. Meanwhile there are worrying signs of falling…

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A double-dip in house prices isn’t really the problem

A double-dip in house prices isn’t really the problem

The Nationwide house price survey showing a drop of 0.9% following a 0.5% drop in July adds yet more weight to the growing view that house prices are sagging and are set to sag further. The Halifax index peaked in March and fell monthly up to a minor rally in July. The Acadmetrics index has been heading south since March, although it similarly saw a gentle uplift of 0.1% in July. Hometrack went 0.1% negative in July and the drop…

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Nationwide joins other indexes to show house prices falling

Nationwide joins other indexes to show house prices falling

It came as little surprise that the Nationwide house price survey should show a fall in July. And it showed a pretty significant fall of 0.5% on its seasonally adjusted series. It had been for many months among the more bullish of the indexes measuring inflation in the UK housing market, at a time when others were showing the market sliding backwards. But like most of the indexes, the Nationwide has had to draw big conclusions from a rather thinner…

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The housing market stalls

The housing market stalls

As the latest round of monthly housing market indicators spills new insight into the pot of understanding the figures seem to support earlier suggestions that both activity and prices are stalling. The pattern is varied regionally and confused by the General Election, pre-Budget anticipation over the increases in Capital Gains Tax for second home owners, the suspension of Home Improvement Packs and the ripples generated by the changes to stamp duty. But the overall trend does now seems to suggest…

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What to make of the conflicting messages from the latest house prices surveys

What to make of the conflicting messages from the latest house prices surveys

As last week closed the Halifax index showed the average price of a home (seasonally adjusted) falling for the second month in a row. This contrasts starkly with the Nationwide data which earlier last week was showing a continuation of a minor surge in prices. Meanwhile the Hometrack survey released last Monday suggests that house price inflation in flagging as activity in the market slows. It is hard to know exactly what to make of these conflicting accounts and to…

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We’re back to double-digit growth in house prices, oh dear

We’re back to double-digit growth in house prices, oh dear

House prices are booming again, crack open the champagne! Well maybe not. If I was a house builder reading the latest survey from the Nationwide building society showing a double-digit rise in prices over the past year (see graph) I would be worried. Looking at my short-term prospects, naturally I would be chirpy about the larger profit margin I could reasonably expect on my future sales. Naturally I would be upbeat about how price competitive I can now be against…

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Are UK houses really worth 6% more than a year ago?

Are UK houses really worth 6% more than a year ago?

The final Halifax index for 2009 has been released and it settles on a December 2009 average house price 5.6% above that of December 2008. This is roughly in line with the figures from Nationwide which show a 5.9% rise. It is easy from this to draw the conclusion that on average your house is worth about 6% more than a year ago. That would be an ill-advised assumption at best and foolish at worst.

Pundits on balance point to flat house prices in 2010

Pundits on balance point to flat house prices in 2010

It’s the time of the year for reflections, resolutions and prognostications. And what can be more fun than guessing the likely path of house prices? Well I can think of a few things. And I’m also left wondering why anyone would wish to state a house price forecast publicly and put their reputations on the line. Predicting house prices currently is a bit like trying to pin a tail on a bucking donkey while blindfolded and in front of a sneering audience….

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