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Tag: Markit/CIPS

Just how fast is the construction industry growing?

Just how fast is the construction industry growing?

This is a question that’s puzzling plenty of experts in the field at the moment. The trade surveys suggest strong and continued growth. The official data suggests a slowdown recently. So let’s look at the muddle of data. The Construction Products Association earlier this week released the latest Construction Trade Survey, which pulls together a range of survey data from material suppliers, contractors, subcontractors and small builders. Its headline said activity had increased for eight straight quarters. Most of the…

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Questioning data, questioning the value of data, glasshouses and stones

Questioning data, questioning the value of data, glasshouses and stones

Last week’s ONS construction data release caused a few ripples when it showed output dipping in August. It also sparked some sharp criticism from Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit – the people that bring you the PMI surveys. The second paragraph of his commentary reads: “We question the value of the official construction data due to the scale of revisions that occur after data are first release. The signals about the health of the sector and the economy as…

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What brick and block shortage? What house-building boom?

What brick and block shortage? What house-building boom?

House building is enjoying its fastest growth for a decade or more and this is leading to shortages in the supply chain that threaten growth. That at least has become a widely accepted narrative that in many ways is characterising the current state of the construction industry. But is this really the case? The latest release by the business department BIS of the Monthly Bulletin of Building Materials and Components prompted me to scrutinise the data and various comments and…

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Sustained output growth is just the start of a long recovery for construction

Sustained output growth is just the start of a long recovery for construction

The latest Markit/CIPS survey of construction activity came out yesterday grabbing big headlines and very possibly spectacularly misinforming the general public. The most common interpretation seems to be: “Construction grows at fastest rate for six years.” This is not surprising because it was what the Markit release actually said. I’m not saying this is bonkers, but it would surprise quite a few people if the official construction output figures record the fastest growth in six years in either the third…

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Why we should be cautious about seeing the RICS survey as a signpost to growth in UK construction

Why we should be cautious about seeing the RICS survey as a signpost to growth in UK construction

The press release headline for today’s RICS construction market survey suggests the industry will turn the corner and grow in 2013. That sounds like encouraging news. Sadly, it is probably over optimistic and probably overstates the results of the survey. Sorry to burst one of the all too few happy bubbles you’ll see this year. But there’s a host of reasons to be cautious over the interpretation of the latest survey. The RICS construction survey provides a useful indication of…

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2013 kicks off with some unwelcome bad news for construction

2013 kicks off with some unwelcome bad news for construction

The sharpest drop in construction output since June 2012 is not the snippet of construction data you would want to read with a fresh new year ahead of you and optimism rising like sap in the spring. Sadly that was the first key point from the latest monthly Markit/CIPS construction survey. It is perhaps ironic that it should be the Markit/CIPS survey providing the first bad news of the year, given that historicaly it tends to be more optimistic than most…

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Construction firms are shedding jobs as they head for a long dark winter, says buyers’ chief

Construction firms are shedding jobs as they head for a long dark winter, says buyers’ chief

Today’s construction indicator released today by Markit/CIPS suggests construction firms performed slightly better in October than in September. The index, which is pegged against a no change mark of 50, was at recorded as 50.9 in October, up from 49.5 in September. But in reality this indicator tends for whatever reasons to run a bit hot, judging by past performance. So a score of 50.9 probably should be seen as negative rather than positive. Interestingly if we plot the Markit/CIPS…

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Government should be fixing its policy credibility rather than boasting about its fiscal credibility

Government should be fixing its policy credibility rather than boasting about its fiscal credibility

The Government’s intervention to boost infrastructure spending is timely. The construction data is almost all pointing in a southerly direction. The latest construction activity survey from the surveyors’ body RICS, released today, suggests workload among its members shrank in the second quarter.