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Tag: commercial building

Construction continues to tank, but we need a considered response not knee-jerk policies

Construction continues to tank, but we need a considered response not knee-jerk policies

The latest monthly construction output figures from the ONS for January provide little to surprise those who have been following their progress of late. They remain horribly worrying. The figures show construction output in January adjusted for inflation down 6.3% on December and 7.9% down on January 2012. Given there is no seasonal adjustment, it is best to measure output adjusted for inflation on a 12-month-rolling basis. On this measure output continues to slide with the annual size of the…

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Latest new orders figures cast a long dark shadow over construction

Latest new orders figures cast a long dark shadow over construction

The construction new orders figures released by the Office for National Statistics on Friday suggest a truly scary year or more for the UK industry. We can find some solace in the general rule that it is unwise to take as your guide just one measure of activity in construction, given the trickiness of measuring the industry’s activity. There are much less worrisome measures of construction activity to be found. But let’s consider what conclusions we might draw if we…

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Construction firms are shedding jobs as they head for a long dark winter, says buyers’ chief

Construction firms are shedding jobs as they head for a long dark winter, says buyers’ chief

Today’s construction indicator released today by Markit/CIPS suggests construction firms performed slightly better in October than in September. The index, which is pegged against a no change mark of 50, was at recorded as 50.9 in October, up from 49.5 in September. But in reality this indicator tends for whatever reasons to run a bit hot, judging by past performance. So a score of 50.9 probably should be seen as negative rather than positive. Interestingly if we plot the Markit/CIPS…

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ONS correction to new orders data adds more black eyeliner to a Gothic horror show

ONS correction to new orders data adds more black eyeliner to a Gothic horror show

It would be easy to attack the Office for National Statistics for miscalculating the new orders figures by £1.2 billion for the second quarter of this year. Yes it’s embarrassing for the organisation. The folk there don’t need me or anyone else to tell them that. By all accounts there was a glitch in the system which chucked out a rare error.

Output data suggest it’s past time for the Government to act decisively to boost construction

Output data suggest it’s past time for the Government to act decisively to boost construction

There will be some people expelling phews of relief at seeing construction output for the second quarter revised up by the Office for National Statistics from a dramatic drop of 5.2% to a less frightful fall of 3.9%. Certainly this will have the effect, all other things being equal, of lifting the rather shocking GDP drop of 0.7% by 0.1% or so. Not much, but a little.

Forecasters see longer deeper double dip for construction

Forecasters see longer deeper double dip for construction

The latest batch of industry forecasts are emerging and they show construction locked in a deeper recession than previous expected. The recovery now looks further away. Top graph shows how the industry appears to be facing a pretty deep and protracted second recession.

Output data add to worries over private sector weakness as public sector cuts hit workloads

Output data add to worries over private sector weakness as public sector cuts hit workloads

The latest output figures released by the Office for National Statistics on Friday appear to support growing concerns that the decline in construction workload might be accelerating. Analysis of the data suggests that as the decline in public sector work is gathering pace the recovery in the private sector is petering out.

Why the latest orders figures are so disturbing

Why the latest orders figures are so disturbing

The latest official data for new orders in construction could be read as good news. They show an up-tick of almost 5% in the first quarter of this year on the seasonally adjusted measure. That sounds promising on the face of it and many might claim that it is. But that would be to look at a small detail in a much bigger picture that looks far from promising.

Whatever the revisions to the official figures they point to a tough time for construction

Whatever the revisions to the official figures they point to a tough time for construction

The Office for National Statistics confirmed its preliminary estimate that construction was again in technical recession. Indeed its latest estimate is that construction fell further in the first quarter of this year, dropping by 4.8% rather than the 3% it estimated for the GDP figures released late last month. Not too much should be read into the revision. The scope for revisions up and down was great as the initial stab was based on limited data. It was also unclear…

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