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Tag: recession

Why GDP growth is the most likely salvation for construction

Why GDP growth is the most likely salvation for construction

There’s constant talk of this growth policy and that growth policy centred on construction. Big-looking numbers are bandied about. Then not a lot happens. Perhaps that’s just politics in the modern media age where it is assumed that the memory of past policies is overwritten by the latest. Cynicism aside, while the flim flam and bluster of politics is a barrier to getting useful things done, more worrying to me is a seeming lack of understanding of scale. Put simply…

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What can you do when a radical and unashamedly ambitious housing strategy isn’t enough?

What can you do when a radical and unashamedly ambitious housing strategy isn’t enough?

Listening to the Budget speech is often theatre, with oohs and ahhs. Reading the documents is more often a prosaic task punctuated with eh? and what? This Budget provided no exception. Even though it failed to light fires for the construction industry, it did provide interest. George Osborne’s Help to Buy scheme captured the imagination as he spoke. Sadly, unpicking the detail, such as it is, there is plenty of scope for both questions and concern. The Chancellor was not…

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Is the construction industry 13% bigger than we think it is and does it matter?

Is the construction industry 13% bigger than we think it is and does it matter?

Here’s an intriguing puzzle. Why would an alternative measure of construction activity suggest the industry is about 13% bigger than the official construction output figures show? Also, why would this measure of the annual increase in capital goods resulting from construction (gross fixed capital formation) suggest the industry has fallen 20% from peak rather than the 10% the construction output figures suggest? This has been bugging me for some time and some months ago I turned to the Office for…

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How can I put this? The Government remains clueless on how to boost house building

How can I put this? The Government remains clueless on how to boost house building

The latest house building data show we have now endured the three worst years in England for new home completions since 1946. More homes were built in the single year of 1967 than were built in 2010, 2011 and 2012 put together. The figures again underline the limpness of Government strategy in dealing with the housing crisis. Given the projected path we set ourselves as a nation back in 2007, we should be building at twice the current rate. That…

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The figures point to more job losses for construction over the year ahead

The figures point to more job losses for construction over the year ahead

The latest employment figures show construction losing a further 25,000 jobs in the final quarter of last year, following a slight increase in the workforce in the spring and summer. This leaves construction employment down 20,000 on a year ago. Taken from the peak in September 2008, the number employed in construction has fallen by 428,000, roughly 17%. But perhaps of more note is the mix of that workforce. The number of self-employed workers actually increased in the final quarter…

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2012 was the fourth worst on record for construction growth as output falls 8.4%

2012 was the fourth worst on record for construction growth as output falls 8.4%

So there we have it, the official Office for National Statistic figures show that Britain’s construction output fell by 8.4% last year. But how can construction output have collapsed so far so fast and there not be howls of pain and frantic action by the Government to bolster one of the nation’s more vital industries? It’s a puzzle made all the more baffling by the constant appearances on the telly of David Cameron and Nick Clegg in green boots, hi-viz…

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Do the home working statistics provide cause to rethinking the built environment?

Do the home working statistics provide cause to rethinking the built environment?

The recession has brought into stark relief the effects of Internet shopping on the viability of the high street. This has raised big questions on how the nation ought to reconfigure its built environment. This in turn raises big questions for those who build and maintain it. What has been less in our faces during the recession is the marked rise in working from home. This potentially could have an even bigger impact on the built environment and on what…

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Construction forecasters get more pessimistic – the difference a year makes

Construction forecasters get more pessimistic – the difference a year makes

It’s that time of year when we look at forecasts and wonder just how bad or good the future will be for the construction industry. The top graph shows the latest prognostications and they look pretty miserable in the short term. The forecasters have nudged down their expectations, some lightly, some heavily, which means they now expect things to be worse than when they last forecast. The overall picture they paint is of another year or possibly two of recession…

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Why today’s GDP estimate for construction growth is so worrying

Why today’s GDP estimate for construction growth is so worrying

The estimate for construction growth within the latest GDP figures was truly surprising. We already had two of the three months of data in for the fourth quarter and from that you could build a reasonable case for growth between 2% and (perhaps) 5%. Those unfamiliar with the data might see that as a sign of recovery. It would not have been for many reasons, one – the lag inherent in the monthly survey returns – I will discuss later….

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Nicky come lately still doesn’t get it for all his Damascene conversion to capital spending

Nicky come lately still doesn’t get it for all his Damascene conversion to capital spending

The Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg has realised, he says, that the Government cut capital spending too fast. After this no doubt a whole industry – construction – is now saying “we agree with Nick”. The sad twist is that in reality it is Nick that now agrees with the industry. Sad because the nation has had to endure a long haul where opportunities were missed and huge damage done. Sadder still because there’s little hope of a meaningful boost…

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