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Construction continues to tank, but we need a considered response not knee-jerk policies

Construction continues to tank, but we need a considered response not knee-jerk policies

The latest monthly construction output figures from the ONS for January provide little to surprise those who have been following their progress of late. They remain horribly worrying. The figures show construction output in January adjusted for inflation down 6.3% on December and 7.9% down on January 2012. Given there is no seasonal adjustment, it is best to measure output adjusted for inflation on a 12-month-rolling basis. On this measure output continues to slide with the annual size of the…

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Rise in new orders provides some solace, but they remain at very low levels

Rise in new orders provides some solace, but they remain at very low levels

The latest construction new orders figures will give some solace to some. The need to see growth, any growth, in any construction indicator is desperate. The top graph shows clearly how new orders for construction have fallen over the past few years and how frighteningly low the level remains. I remain a shade concerned over the accuracy of this data series just because it does look so terrible and the implications the figures have for construction output – that which…

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The figures point to more job losses for construction over the year ahead

The figures point to more job losses for construction over the year ahead

The latest employment figures show construction losing a further 25,000 jobs in the final quarter of last year, following a slight increase in the workforce in the spring and summer. This leaves construction employment down 20,000 on a year ago. Taken from the peak in September 2008, the number employed in construction has fallen by 428,000, roughly 17%. But perhaps of more note is the mix of that workforce. The number of self-employed workers actually increased in the final quarter…

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2012 was the fourth worst on record for construction growth as output falls 8.4%

2012 was the fourth worst on record for construction growth as output falls 8.4%

So there we have it, the official Office for National Statistic figures show that Britain’s construction output fell by 8.4% last year. But how can construction output have collapsed so far so fast and there not be howls of pain and frantic action by the Government to bolster one of the nation’s more vital industries? It’s a puzzle made all the more baffling by the constant appearances on the telly of David Cameron and Nick Clegg in green boots, hi-viz…

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Do the home working statistics provide cause to rethinking the built environment?

Do the home working statistics provide cause to rethinking the built environment?

The recession has brought into stark relief the effects of Internet shopping on the viability of the high street. This has raised big questions on how the nation ought to reconfigure its built environment. This in turn raises big questions for those who build and maintain it. What has been less in our faces during the recession is the marked rise in working from home. This potentially could have an even bigger impact on the built environment and on what…

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Construction forecasters get more pessimistic – the difference a year makes

Construction forecasters get more pessimistic – the difference a year makes

It’s that time of year when we look at forecasts and wonder just how bad or good the future will be for the construction industry. The top graph shows the latest prognostications and they look pretty miserable in the short term. The forecasters have nudged down their expectations, some lightly, some heavily, which means they now expect things to be worse than when they last forecast. The overall picture they paint is of another year or possibly two of recession…

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Why today’s GDP estimate for construction growth is so worrying

Why today’s GDP estimate for construction growth is so worrying

The estimate for construction growth within the latest GDP figures was truly surprising. We already had two of the three months of data in for the fourth quarter and from that you could build a reasonable case for growth between 2% and (perhaps) 5%. Those unfamiliar with the data might see that as a sign of recovery. It would not have been for many reasons, one – the lag inherent in the monthly survey returns – I will discuss later….

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The construction recession will be deeper – that’s the forecasters latest view

The construction recession will be deeper – that’s the forecasters latest view

The latest industry forecasts for construction activity are, as expected, much gloomier than they were as recently ago as last autumn. Both Experian and the Construction Products Association have trimmed their expectations for growth in construction output for this year and next. Experian is estimating a drop of 8.5% for last year on current data followed by a 3.5% drop this year, while CPA expects a 8.8% for 2012 with a of 2.2% for 2013. The graph (right) shows how these compare…

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Output falls as construction faces worrying time over jobs in 2013

Output falls as construction faces worrying time over jobs in 2013

The latest Office for National Statistics construction output figures fit the pattern of an industry is sharp decline. There was a brief pause for optimism last month as the October data provided a lift. But I cautioned last month about reading too much into one month’s data and, as Noble Francis at the Construction Products Associate suggests, this rise may well have been down to a delayed post-Olympic surge. Such a delayed impact is understandable, as there are lags in the output…

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Why we should be cautious about seeing the RICS survey as a signpost to growth in UK construction

Why we should be cautious about seeing the RICS survey as a signpost to growth in UK construction

The press release headline for today’s RICS construction market survey suggests the industry will turn the corner and grow in 2013. That sounds like encouraging news. Sadly, it is probably over optimistic and probably overstates the results of the survey. Sorry to burst one of the all too few happy bubbles you’ll see this year. But there’s a host of reasons to be cautious over the interpretation of the latest survey. The RICS construction survey provides a useful indication of…

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