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Tag: forecasts

Strengthening data push construction forecasters towards greater optimism

Strengthening data push construction forecasters towards greater optimism

Construction industry forecasters have been busily upgrading their forecasts in the light of a turnaround in industry fortunes since Spring. Despite all raising their expectations for the future path of construction, at first glance the forecasts from Construction Products Association, Experian and Hewes appear to be telling very different stories. That certainly seems to be the take-away message from the graph. In some ways they are telling different tales, but in reality there’s more similarity than meets the eye. One…

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The official construction figures add to the growing case for cautious optimism

The official construction figures add to the growing case for cautious optimism

The latest construction output figures provide yet more reasons to suspect that the industry may be pulling itself out of its slough. This evidence is reinforced by the release of the newly-constituted new orders figures. The construction output data for July show the index of construction activity has risen to its highest level since last October. This measure, which is seasonally adjusted and deflated to account for price changes, stood in July at 95.5 against 100 in 2010. This may…

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Not much more sun, but fewer black clouds in latest construction industry forecasts

Not much more sun, but fewer black clouds in latest construction industry forecasts

The recent welter of more upbeat economic data has left the numbers in the latest construction industry forecasts pretty much unmoved, with the exception of private housing. The broad view is still that this year will see output fall, between 1.5% and 3.8%, with recovery taking place sometime between the end of this year and sometime next year, depending on which forecast you look at. Excluding private housing, there have been tweaks here and there as the forecasters have adjusted…

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It’s worrying that we are losing construction jobs. But equally disturbing is the loss of capacity

It’s worrying that we are losing construction jobs. But equally disturbing is the loss of capacity

The latest ONS labour market figures showing workforce jobs in construction pretty much mirror expectations with a drop of 53,000 from the 2012 Q1 to 2013 Q1. This is pretty much in line with the employment figures published last month which showed a fall of 41,000 over the same period. Interestingly the brunt of the more recent losses appears to have been taken by the self-employed, which had been significantly less impacted through most of the recessionary period since 2008….

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The cost to construction of false optimism

The cost to construction of false optimism

For the past five years this blog has been perceived as a purveyor of doom and gloom and sometimes criticised for being so. I part jokingly retort that I may be gloomy, but I tend to be out-gloomed by reality. Here’s my take in 2008. There is plenty of scope I see now to have been gloomier than I was and not have been unreasonable as things have panned out. But this post does not concern who was right or…

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Construction forecasts shaded up, but still predict recession dragging on into 2014

Construction forecasts shaded up, but still predict recession dragging on into 2014

The main industry forecasters have revised up their expectations for the future path of construction output. The revisions from the previous forecast three months or so ago suggest there will be an extra one billion or so pounds worth of work flowing into construction this year than previously expected. Part of this is statistical, as the latest Office for National Statistics data puts the fall in 2012 at less than first thought. But, even so, the forecasters have slightly shaded…

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The answer is expect falling construction to prompt a triple dip – but what was the question?

The answer is expect falling construction to prompt a triple dip – but what was the question?

It’s hard not to get caught up in the silly guessing game over whether the nation will tumble into a triple-dip recession or not. Yes it is totemic. But actually measuring growth to an accuracy of 0.1% is pretty tricky and revisions over time can eliminate or even reverse growth rates. The reality is that growth is very weak, if there is any, at the moment and that is horrible, especially for construction where its growth requires at least modest…

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The latest construction output figures are very disturbing

The latest construction output figures are very disturbing

The graph probably says it all. The construction output figures are looking very disturbing. This will not come as a surprise to many, but the confirmation of fears provides little solace. Yes we can blame the weather. Yes we can note that the figures bounce about a lot. Yes we can find comfort in the possibility of revisions. But as they stand and as far as you can make out from the historic data the figures suggest that construction probably…

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Why GDP growth is the most likely salvation for construction

Why GDP growth is the most likely salvation for construction

There’s constant talk of this growth policy and that growth policy centred on construction. Big-looking numbers are bandied about. Then not a lot happens. Perhaps that’s just politics in the modern media age where it is assumed that the memory of past policies is overwritten by the latest. Cynicism aside, while the flim flam and bluster of politics is a barrier to getting useful things done, more worrying to me is a seeming lack of understanding of scale. Put simply…

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What can you do when a radical and unashamedly ambitious housing strategy isn’t enough?

What can you do when a radical and unashamedly ambitious housing strategy isn’t enough?

Listening to the Budget speech is often theatre, with oohs and ahhs. Reading the documents is more often a prosaic task punctuated with eh? and what? This Budget provided no exception. Even though it failed to light fires for the construction industry, it did provide interest. George Osborne’s Help to Buy scheme captured the imagination as he spoke. Sadly, unpicking the detail, such as it is, there is plenty of scope for both questions and concern. The Chancellor was not…

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