House prices dropped over 2010 by 1.6% on the normal measure used by Halifax and appear to be on the way down. Meanwhile the Bank of England reinforced what we already knew –or at least thought we knew – that the appetite for mortgages waned markedly in the final quarter of 2010 and is expected to decline still further this quarter. So, things don’t look too perky on the house price front (unless you are buying) when we add in…
Experian’s latest figures on payment performance for the third quarter of this year provide construction firms and their suppliers both reasons to be cheerful and reasons to be a tad wary. Both property and construction firms are delaying payments less than they were a year ago, but over the latest quarter, both sectors have become slower to pay up. Property firms on average are paying two days or so later than they were three months earlier and construction firms just a…
The latest monthly housing market survey from the surveyors’ body RICS will come as unwelcome, if expected, bad news to developers, estate agents and potential sellers. The survey shows the fastest increase in the number of agents seeing price falls since the ugly period that followed the credit crunch (see graph sourced from the RICS August survey) and the lowest reading since May 2009. Last month the survey showed the balance between agents seeing prices up and those seeing prices…
We all know it’s been bad in house building, but sometimes you have to look at the figures again to remind yourself just how bad things have been. The release of the latest housing figures provides that reality check, as the graph below so clearly illustrates. It’s been carnage and it is a long way back even to meet pre-credit crunch levels of building. In the first quarter of 2007 the industry was beginning to motor as is clear from…
How ironic that just as the construction industry is sucking in its tummy and preparing for savage cuts the latest survey by the buyers’ body CIPS shows some of the strongest growth experienced over the past decade. As can be seen from graph on the right the current level of the index suggests a growth rate that would have been well received at most times in the period from 2000 to the credit crunch. The survey suggests that activity in the…
The latest data on mortage lending from the Bank of England will do little to steady the nerves of those in the house building world. The figures show the number of approvals for house purchases on a seasonally adjusted basis has taken a dip in the first quarter of this year. The number of mortgages for the first quarter of this year dropped 16% on the final quarter of 2009, although the figure was up 17% on a year ago…
Construction output slumped back into decline in the final quarter of 2009, after a supposed rise out of recession in summer. That is the headline story from today’s release of the construction output figures. But dig a bit deeper and we see some unsettling implications in the numbers.
It’s the time of the year for reflections, resolutions and prognostications. And what can be more fun than guessing the likely path of house prices? Well I can think of a few things. And I’m also left wondering why anyone would wish to state a house price forecast publicly and put their reputations on the line. Predicting house prices currently is a bit like trying to pin a tail on a bucking donkey while blindfolded and in front of a sneering audience….
The latest swathe of housing data continues to suggest a pick up both in prices and activity and the RICS November house price survey, released today, adds further weight to the case for a housing recovery. Its measures for sales, expected sales, new inquiries, new instructions, prices and expected prices are all in soundly positive territory, although the rate of improvement appears to have slackened. This survey follows the release of a stack of housing indices pointing upward on prices….
It’s coming around to the construction forecasting season again and the industry prognosticators will be gathering to discuss the ups and downs of the industry. If I were you, I’d be bracing myself for some pretty savage revisions to what already look like pretty savage forecasts. Peak to trough in the 90’s recession we saw a drop in volume terms of 14% in workload. In the 1980s recession it was 16% and in the 1970s it was 20%, according to…