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The construction recession will be deeper – that’s the forecasters latest view

The construction recession will be deeper – that’s the forecasters latest view

The latest industry forecasts for construction activity are, as expected, much gloomier than they were as recently ago as last autumn. Both Experian and the Construction Products Association have trimmed their expectations for growth in construction output for this year and next. Experian is estimating a drop of 8.5% for last year on current data followed by a 3.5% drop this year, while CPA expects a 8.8% for 2012 with a of 2.2% for 2013. The graph (right) shows how these compare…

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Why we should be cautious about seeing the RICS survey as a signpost to growth in UK construction

Why we should be cautious about seeing the RICS survey as a signpost to growth in UK construction

The press release headline for today’s RICS construction market survey suggests the industry will turn the corner and grow in 2013. That sounds like encouraging news. Sadly, it is probably over optimistic and probably overstates the results of the survey. Sorry to burst one of the all too few happy bubbles you’ll see this year. But there’s a host of reasons to be cautious over the interpretation of the latest survey. The RICS construction survey provides a useful indication of…

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2013 kicks off with some unwelcome bad news for construction

2013 kicks off with some unwelcome bad news for construction

The sharpest drop in construction output since June 2012 is not the snippet of construction data you would want to read with a fresh new year ahead of you and optimism rising like sap in the spring. Sadly that was the first key point from the latest monthly Markit/CIPS construction survey. It is perhaps ironic that it should be the Markit/CIPS survey providing the first bad news of the year, given that historicaly it tends to be more optimistic than most…

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Latest new orders figures cast a long dark shadow over construction

Latest new orders figures cast a long dark shadow over construction

The construction new orders figures released by the Office for National Statistics on Friday suggest a truly scary year or more for the UK industry. We can find some solace in the general rule that it is unwise to take as your guide just one measure of activity in construction, given the trickiness of measuring the industry’s activity. There are much less worrisome measures of construction activity to be found. But let’s consider what conclusions we might draw if we…

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Why job shedding in the UK construction industry may be about to accelerate

Why job shedding in the UK construction industry may be about to accelerate

UK construction industry employed about 57,000 fewer people in the third quarter of this year than a year earlier. That’s a drop of about 2.6%. The ONS data shows that since the peak in September 2007 the fall in the number employed is closer to 380,000. This represents broadly a 15% drop in the workforce. It’s worth noting that these figures are subject to a lot of statistical noise so a few thousand here or there is pretty meaningless. Furthermore…

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UK construction bosses need to make Government face the facts: The industry is in freefall

UK construction bosses need to make Government face the facts: The industry is in freefall

Construction output fell 2.6% in the third quarter of this year. This fall was slightly more than had been expected when the nation’s first estimate of gross domestic product was released. For informed industry watchers this was no surprise. The fact that revisions by the Office for National Statistics to earlier data pushed the recorded level of output down still further was also not a surprise.

Construction firms are shedding jobs as they head for a long dark winter, says buyers’ chief

Construction firms are shedding jobs as they head for a long dark winter, says buyers’ chief

Today’s construction indicator released today by Markit/CIPS suggests construction firms performed slightly better in October than in September. The index, which is pegged against a no change mark of 50, was at recorded as 50.9 in October, up from 49.5 in September. But in reality this indicator tends for whatever reasons to run a bit hot, judging by past performance. So a score of 50.9 probably should be seen as negative rather than positive. Interestingly if we plot the Markit/CIPS…

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What is the optimism in the latest RICS construction survey telling us?

What is the optimism in the latest RICS construction survey telling us?

The latest survey of the construction market by the surveyors’ body RICS provides on first reading some confusion, showing optimism rising sharply while workloads fall. The survey has produced a mildly negative balance for surveyors’ workloads. Yet it also showed expectations of improvement in workload, employment and profit at levels not seen since the recession. Curious. What lies behind this surge in optimism among surveyors? Are we seeing green shoots?

The real home truth is that the Government can and should do more to boost house building

The real home truth is that the Government can and should do more to boost house building

The National Housing Federation launched its 2012 Home Truths report today. It’s got lots of coverage, probably because it says again what many already know – there’s a housing crisis and it will put even more pressure on the already stressed and strained housing benefit system. We spend more than £20 billion a year on housing benefit in a bid to keep the poorest out of housing squalor. But thousands more working folk are turning to this benefit as rents…

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