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Tag: recession

Latest construction output figures support recession fears

Latest construction output figures support recession fears

The latest construction output figures add further weight to fears that the industry is heading into recession. At first glance the figures may seem reasonably positive. The volume of work carried out in the three months to January was a shade (0.7%) up on last year. This seems to suggest that construction is holding its own in tough circumstances. Looked at on an annualised basis construction has been broadly flat since May last year, as we can see from the…

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Why calling for housing QE is not special pleading: Part 2

Why calling for housing QE is not special pleading: Part 2

If growing calls to use quantitative easing to directly stimulate weaker parts of the economy lead to a change in approach by the Bank of England it would leave a tricky question. That’s the question Sir Mervyn King, the Bank’s Governor, threw back at Treasury Committee member Andy Love last week. He asked: “Can you give me an example of the asset you think we should be purchasing. I asked the previous Chancellor and got no reply.” Mr Love gave…

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A tale of two indicators – what to make of the latest construction PMI and orders figures

A tale of two indicators – what to make of the latest construction PMI and orders figures

When construction indicators point in different directions what are we to make of it? The February Markit/CIPS purchasing managers’ index released today is very bullish, suggesting the best growth for 14 months and the best month for new business for 21 months. Meanwhile, the official ONS construction new orders figures for the final quarter of last year were very downbeat. They showed a gloomier picture, with orders down on the previous quarter by 2.5%, down 15.4% on a year earlier….

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Why Construction Products Association is right to push quantitative easing for house building

Why Construction Products Association is right to push quantitative easing for house building

The Construction Products Association has called on the Chancellor to pave the way so that quantitative easing can be exploited to fund house building. And there seems to be growing backing within the construction sector and without for using the quantitative easing machine as means to increase the number of homes being built.

Plant hire firms continue to rebuild prices

Plant hire firms continue to rebuild prices

Plant hire firms continued on their journey of rebuilding prices throughout last year with the latest figures from the services producer prices series showing another upward tick. Prices in the final quarter of 2011 were up about 3% on a year ago. Against consumer price inflation, currently running at 3.6%, and in the face of upward pressure on costs, this hardly suggests times have got easy for the sector. But with activity recently on the up, see graph, and with firms…

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The latest survey of specialists adds weight to recessionary fears

The latest survey of specialists adds weight to recessionary fears

What makes the latest survey of specialist contractors by the trade body NSCC of particular concern is that, for the first time in two years, it hints heavily at recession. It’s in the nature of surveys such as this to bounce about a bit, so it’s unwise to read too much into relatively small movements in its indicators, even if the readings are taken quarterly. And it should be noted that changes in sentiment about wider issues than construction can…

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Why is confidence rising in the construction industry when it appears set for recession?

Why is confidence rising in the construction industry when it appears set for recession?

I have noted from conversations I have had recently a more confident air about the future within construction this side of the New Year. And the latest Markit/CIPS survey seems to add to this anecdotal evidence with its finding that confidence in the sector in January improved “to the second-strongest degree in the survey history to reach the highest since May 2011”. I’m not sure what that actually means in numbers but it sounds like a lot of improvement.

It’s time for Shapps to find a big bazooka

It’s time for Shapps to find a big bazooka

In September 2010 Grant Shapps set a “Gold Standard” against which he, as housing minister, would be judged – to see a house-building rate at least matching that achieved before the recession. There are few targets (political hostages to fortune, perhaps) discernable from the reams of documentation and hours of speeches and statements made by this Government. But this is one. It is important. The consensus is England needs more homes. Sorry, a lot more homes, more even than the previous…

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Latest output figures suggest construction is sliding into recession

Latest output figures suggest construction is sliding into recession

Today’s construction output figures are a bit of a mixed bag suggesting things are getting worse, but that they were not as bad as we thought they were. The headline figure is that output over the three months to October was down by 1.1% compared with a year ago. And, as is clear from the graph, on the basis of the latest figures the industry does appear to be subsiding into recession. The graph shows the monthly progression of the…

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