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Tag: ONS

Why last week’s rise in inflation should not have been a surprise but an important reminder

Why last week’s rise in inflation should not have been a surprise but an important reminder

The Bank of England seems to have taken a kicking in the press following the release last week of the Office of National Statistics estimate for inflation in March. The reports seem to fixate on the uptick to CPI inflation from 3.4% in February to 3.5% in March. This rise did not fit, in the view of many economic commentators, the script written by the Bank of England in its latest Inflation Report. Although in fairness the report did point…

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Construction seems to be back in recession and this time its the big firms in the firing line

Construction seems to be back in recession and this time its the big firms in the firing line

I will be shocked if construction is not in a technical recession when the first quarter figures are published in a month’s time. That is providing the official construction output data for Great Britain released today is not fantastically revised. What is more we should expect to see bigger contractors squealing the most, as it is the markets they dominate that seem to be under most pressure. I have done a few back-of-an-envelope calculations and (unless I am very much out of…

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Construction employment holds up in 2011 – but fears remain over job prospects

Construction employment holds up in 2011 – but fears remain over job prospects

The latest national jobs figures may well provide some comfort for those in construction as they show that the level of employment held up last year. The number of jobs stood at 2,052,000 on the workforce jobs by industry count. And employment on the Labour Force Survey count stood at 2,165,000. Given the margins of error in the surveys the broad picture, as we see from graph 1, is of a flat jobs market in construction for the best part of…

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Latest construction output figures support recession fears

Latest construction output figures support recession fears

The latest construction output figures add further weight to fears that the industry is heading into recession. At first glance the figures may seem reasonably positive. The volume of work carried out in the three months to January was a shade (0.7%) up on last year. This seems to suggest that construction is holding its own in tough circumstances. Looked at on an annualised basis construction has been broadly flat since May last year, as we can see from the…

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A tale of two indicators – what to make of the latest construction PMI and orders figures

A tale of two indicators – what to make of the latest construction PMI and orders figures

When construction indicators point in different directions what are we to make of it? The February Markit/CIPS purchasing managers’ index released today is very bullish, suggesting the best growth for 14 months and the best month for new business for 21 months. Meanwhile, the official ONS construction new orders figures for the final quarter of last year were very downbeat. They showed a gloomier picture, with orders down on the previous quarter by 2.5%, down 15.4% on a year earlier….

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Plant hire activity rises again in 2011 Q4

Plant hire activity rises again in 2011 Q4

Thanks to swift and generous efforts made by the Office for National Statistics I can give you the latest official update of activity in the rental and leasing world. The latest data – a non-published sub-set of the Index of Services released this morning – shows a continued rise in the amount of work done by plant hire firms in the final quarter. I have also updated the construction output figures to the latest index provided in the GDP series….

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Things seem to be getting worse slower for architects and engineers

Things seem to be getting worse slower for architects and engineers

Encouraging perhaps, the latest statistics on the prospects and performance for architects and engineers seem to be of the “not so negative” variety. The December data from the Office for National Statistics’ Turnover and Orders in Production and Services Industries show what could be regarded as real growth for architectural and engineering services in 2011. Last year the sector delivered in cash terms £43.3 billion of turnover compared with £41.4 billion in 2010. This was a rise of about 4.5% and…

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Latest output figures suggest construction is sliding into recession

Latest output figures suggest construction is sliding into recession

Today’s construction output figures are a bit of a mixed bag suggesting things are getting worse, but that they were not as bad as we thought they were. The headline figure is that output over the three months to October was down by 1.1% compared with a year ago. And, as is clear from the graph, on the basis of the latest figures the industry does appear to be subsiding into recession. The graph shows the monthly progression of the…

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No Christmas cheer from the ONS new orders figures

No Christmas cheer from the ONS new orders figures

The latest construction new orders figures give no comfort to those fearing a nasty second bout of recession in construction. The numbers bounced up a little in the third quarter but remain on a downward path if looked at on an annualised basis, as can be seen from the graph (more graphs below).