The latest jobs data from the Office for National Statistics support the widely held view that construction employment is falling. And, given that employment data tends to lag output data, we should then expect to see further, perhaps more significant, falls in the number employed in construction in the relatively near future.
The latest output figures released by the Office for National Statistics on Friday appear to support growing concerns that the decline in construction workload might be accelerating. Analysis of the data suggests that as the decline in public sector work is gathering pace the recovery in the private sector is petering out.
The latest official data for new orders in construction could be read as good news. They show an up-tick of almost 5% in the first quarter of this year on the seasonally adjusted measure. That sounds promising on the face of it and many might claim that it is. But that would be to look at a small detail in a much bigger picture that looks far from promising.
For many economists and commentators the employment data released today by the Office for National Statistics were better than expected. The figures hint at a few more people employed and a few fewer unemployed people across the economy, if we look at the seasonally adjusted data. But compared with a year ago the number of people employed is pretty much the same, given the potential for errors inevitable in such data.
The Office for National Statistics confirmed its preliminary estimate that construction was again in technical recession. Indeed its latest estimate is that construction fell further in the first quarter of this year, dropping by 4.8% rather than the 3% it estimated for the GDP figures released late last month. Not too much should be read into the revision. The scope for revisions up and down was great as the initial stab was based on limited data. It was also unclear…
Yesterday’s blog looked at the need to boost construction and the huge benefits the nation gains from focusing on job-intensive work. Today we’ll look at how else we might boost construction to generate economic growth and, interestingly, reduce the deficit. But before that it’s worth noting that favouring job-intensive construction is not just about where to channel public spending. It’s also about how Government frames policy and incentives. Yesterday I received a tweet putting the case for cutting VAT to 5% on repair…
The latest construction survey from Markit/CIPS points once again to an industry firmly in growth. Its main PMI indicator for April reads 55.8, with 50 being no growth. This reading will put more heat into the row over whether the official statistics that show construction in recession provide a fair reading. Although the Markit/CIPS survey shows suggests a slight relaxation in growth when compared with last month’s reading, it continues a trend that points to pretty respectable growth. The recent readings…
The estimated collapse of 3% in construction output in the first quarter could so easily have been much worse had the methodology team at ONS not spotted a quirk in the seasonal pattern. This led to an adjustment upward from a drop of 4% to the recorded drop of 3%. Without going into technical detail that I don’t fully understand, the connection of the old series to the new series in January 2010 created a “seasonal break”. There’s a whole host of…
Today’s GDP figures will come as unwelcome news to the Government. The data suggest the UK again is in a technical recession, falling by an unexpected 0.2% in the first quarter. A large factor in this decline in growth was down to construction. The GDP data for construction suggest the industry saw a 3% decline in the first quarter of this year. This follows a fall of 0.2% in the final quarter of last year and technically puts construction into…
Tomorrow we get the first hint of how construction might perform this year when the Gross Domestic Product preliminary estimate figures for the first quarter are released. Looking at the initial data on construction output for this year, I suggest everyone should be prepared for a nasty number to emerge within the data for construction’s contribution. But while I think it likely, that doesn’t mean it will. There are things we don’t know. What will early returns for March show?…