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A New Year a welter of New Challenges for Mr Shapps

A New Year a welter of New Challenges for Mr Shapps

Happy New Year and here is wishing fervently that it progresses far better than those reading the runes might suggest. For me the year has started encouragingly and for that I must congratulate Grant Shapps, our housing minister. In May when Shapps took the ministerial reins attached to the wild stallion that is housing I argued that the first big question he had to face down was whether he believes house prices at current levels are sustainable or not. In…

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Halifax shows continued slide in house prices…but the real market test comes in the New Year

Halifax shows continued slide in house prices…but the real market test comes in the New Year

The Halifax house price index crept down today and appears to be on a path of slow decline, which is broadly in line with most other house price indicators. And as we can see from the graph transactions remain subdued and mortgage approvals are also on a gentle downward slide. But while the current slide in the market may be unsettling, it will be the next few months that will prove particularly nail biting for those whose fortunes are pinned…

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What house price falls might mean for future housing construction

What house price falls might mean for future housing construction

The Halifax index out today will provide a nasty kick in the stomach for those businesses reliant on stable or rising house prices to prosper. The monthly fall of 3.6% was the biggest I could find on the historic data spreadsheet that Lloyds Banking Group provides that goes back to the start of 1983. The previous worst monthly fall was 3.0% in September 1992. And however much we are advised to look at the quarterly figure and how ever much…

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A double-dip in house prices isn’t really the problem

A double-dip in house prices isn’t really the problem

The Nationwide house price survey showing a drop of 0.9% following a 0.5% drop in July adds yet more weight to the growing view that house prices are sagging and are set to sag further. The Halifax index peaked in March and fell monthly up to a minor rally in July. The Acadmetrics index has been heading south since March, although it similarly saw a gentle uplift of 0.1% in July. Hometrack went 0.1% negative in July and the drop…

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Estate agents expect housing prices to fall

Estate agents expect housing prices to fall

The latest survey by the surveyors’ body RICS provides further evidence that the bounce back in house prices is petering out. The surveyors polled had, on balance, seen house prices rise in June, but when asked for their expectation for the three months coming the balance swayed narrowly towards a fall in house price. Not that the pattern is even across the UK, the markets in London and Scotland appear fairly buoyant. But in swathes of the north of England and in…

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Are we on the edge of a second house price crash?

Are we on the edge of a second house price crash?

The big question after today’s release of the Halifax house price index is whether the market is heading for a protracted decline or whether prices will stabilise and hold or continue to creep up from the trough of a year or so ago. It must be said that today’s figures, which show the third in a straight set of monthly declines, fit the pattern expected given the recent movement in what might be regarded as leading indicators for house prices….

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Has the Office for Budget Responsibility screwed up the Stamp Duty figures?

Has the Office for Budget Responsibility screwed up the Stamp Duty figures?

I appreciate that Office for Budget Responsibility is taking flak at the moment for being “optimistic with the truth”, but I can’t help but chip in with yet another gripe. I have deep concern that it has made a huge fluff of the numbers for Stamp Duty Land Tax that could leave the Treasury billions short on its target for the revenue so much needed to close the deficit. We are being asked to believe that by 2014 the Treasury…

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The housing market stalls

The housing market stalls

As the latest round of monthly housing market indicators spills new insight into the pot of understanding the figures seem to support earlier suggestions that both activity and prices are stalling. The pattern is varied regionally and confused by the General Election, pre-Budget anticipation over the increases in Capital Gains Tax for second home owners, the suspension of Home Improvement Packs and the ripples generated by the changes to stamp duty. But the overall trend does now seems to suggest…

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Bank figures provide more jitters for the housing market

Bank figures provide more jitters for the housing market

The latest data on mortage lending from the Bank of England will do little to steady the nerves of those in the house building world. The figures show the number of approvals for house purchases on a seasonally adjusted basis has taken a dip in the first quarter of this year. The number of mortgages for the first quarter of this year dropped 16% on the final quarter of 2009, although the figure was up 17% on a year ago…

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More home sellers, fewer home letters – a housing market in flux

More home sellers, fewer home letters – a housing market in flux

How should we read yesterday’s Rightmove figures showing the slowest ever March pick up in asking prices? They appear to be consistent with much of what else we are seeing in the market – a growing body of evidence that the recent bounce back in the housing market is faltering (see previous blog). The key factor slowing the rise in asking prices (see graph) Rightmove isolated was a rise in properties coming onto the market – up 34% on the…

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