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Tag: Markit/CIPS

Skyscrapers and economic crises revisited. A soothsayer’s perspective on the Shard

Skyscrapers and economic crises revisited. A soothsayer’s perspective on the Shard

I’ve been increasingly worried about the possible collapse of the construction industry into a rather deep recession for some time. I have tended to keep my concerns in check, having gained a reputation for being gloomy. But while it’s tricky to tell accurately with the available data, the new orders figures just don’t seem to be healthy enough to me to support the current level of construction output. Ergo – to my mind at least – a nasty drop in…

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As official figures point to decline, Markit/CIPS survey suggests the good times are back

As official figures point to decline, Markit/CIPS survey suggests the good times are back

The latest construction survey from Markit/CIPS points once again to an industry firmly in growth. Its main PMI indicator for April reads 55.8, with 50 being no growth. This reading will put more heat into the row over whether the official statistics that show construction in recession provide a fair reading. Although the Markit/CIPS survey shows suggests a slight relaxation in growth when compared with last month’s reading, it continues a trend that points to pretty respectable growth. The recent readings…

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A tale of two indicators – what to make of the latest construction PMI and orders figures

A tale of two indicators – what to make of the latest construction PMI and orders figures

When construction indicators point in different directions what are we to make of it? The February Markit/CIPS purchasing managers’ index released today is very bullish, suggesting the best growth for 14 months and the best month for new business for 21 months. Meanwhile, the official ONS construction new orders figures for the final quarter of last year were very downbeat. They showed a gloomier picture, with orders down on the previous quarter by 2.5%, down 15.4% on a year earlier….

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No Christmas cheer from the ONS new orders figures

No Christmas cheer from the ONS new orders figures

The latest construction new orders figures give no comfort to those fearing a nasty second bout of recession in construction. The numbers bounced up a little in the third quarter but remain on a downward path if looked at on an annualised basis, as can be seen from the graph (more graphs below).

Worst orders figures on record suggest the worst on the ground is yet to come

Worst orders figures on record suggest the worst on the ground is yet to come

There are times when you hope you’re misreading data or that there may be an error. But it doesn’t look as though these crutches are available as I stare at the carnage implicit in the new orders data. The index, which represents a seasonally-adjusted price-adjusted measure of orders taken by contractors for new work has hit a record low. It stands at 57.5 for the second quarter of this year. Five years ago it stood at almost double that. (see…

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RICS sees some positive signs in the private sector, but its London and South East driven

RICS sees some positive signs in the private sector, but its London and South East driven

Viewed from a particular angle the latest construction survey from RICS seems to come out fairly positive given the current circumstances in which the industry finds itself, although it’s not as upbeat as yesterday’s serving from Markit/CIPS. Workloads are broadly flat according to the RICS survey respondents, which is a bonus in my book given the state of the economy and the outlook.

Markit/CIPS survey suggests solid growth in construction in July, was growth that solid?

Markit/CIPS survey suggests solid growth in construction in July, was growth that solid?

The latest Markit/CIPS PMI construction survey provides on the face of it reasons to be content if not cheerful in these days when gloomy news is served so liberally. Its monthly PMI indicator for July read 53.5 against 53.6 in June. This suggests sound if not spectacular growth (see the graph taken from the press release (pdf)), which seems rather at odds with the more downbeat noises coming from across the industry.

Buyers survey points to quickening pace of input price rises

Buyers survey points to quickening pace of input price rises

The latest construction activity survey by Markit/CIPS suggests that the construction market remains pretty buoyant, with a monthly growth rate at 56.4 for March. This was above the long-term average of around 54. However, you should be a bit cautious before drawing the conclusion that the industry is in fine fettle from these figures. Not that many with a grip on reality would.

What house price falls might mean for future housing construction

What house price falls might mean for future housing construction

The Halifax index out today will provide a nasty kick in the stomach for those businesses reliant on stable or rising house prices to prosper. The monthly fall of 3.6% was the biggest I could find on the historic data spreadsheet that Lloyds Banking Group provides that goes back to the start of 1983. The previous worst monthly fall was 3.0% in September 1992. And however much we are advised to look at the quarterly figure and how ever much…

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