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Tag: General Election

The sorry side of the upswing in construction and why posturing politicians got it wrong again

The sorry side of the upswing in construction and why posturing politicians got it wrong again

For me there’s something dreadfully sad about the timing of the Government’s announcement that it is backing £36 billion worth of planned investment for 2014 and 2015. It will, say the Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer, support 150,000 construction jobs. This should be greeted with unfettered joy. But I’m afraid I can’t see it that way. How do I see it? Well imagine Government leading a construction industry motorcade, ignoring the road ahead, too busy scanning the crowd…

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More optimism, some caution, as all main industry forecasts see construction bounce back

More optimism, some caution, as all main industry forecasts see construction bounce back

Two more construction forecasts came out over the past week that added to the consensus that suggests construction is set for strong growth up to the General Election. Indeed, with the exception of the Hewes forecast, the view is that strong growth will continue well after 2015. The Hewes forecast tends to embrace more of the downside risks and in that respect charts a more cautious approach to potential growth. On that basis it seems reasonable to assume that it…

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Orders figures support view that there is cause for concern in construction

Orders figures support view that there is cause for concern in construction

The main message in the construction new orders figures released by ONS this morning is that the slope is downward and this is points to further falls in output in the future. And, to put them in context, against peak levels in cash terms orders for new construction work are down about a third. But more worryingly we don’t appear to be seeing the kind of acceleration in the private sector we would need to compensate for the losses faced in public…

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Worrying new orders figures, despite 18% quarterly jump

Worrying new orders figures, despite 18% quarterly jump

You wouldn’t expect a sharp rise in new orders for construction to be a cause for concern – not in today’s work-starved economy. But that is just what we have. On the face of it the 18% jump quarter on quarter in the volume of work in the final three months of last year should be a reason to cheer. More work in the pipeline, yippee. And I suppose it is not unreasonable to see it that way. But sadly…

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A New Year a welter of New Challenges for Mr Shapps

A New Year a welter of New Challenges for Mr Shapps

Happy New Year and here is wishing fervently that it progresses far better than those reading the runes might suggest. For me the year has started encouragingly and for that I must congratulate Grant Shapps, our housing minister. In May when Shapps took the ministerial reins attached to the wild stallion that is housing I argued that the first big question he had to face down was whether he believes house prices at current levels are sustainable or not. In…

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Latest stats pour cold water on construction growth prospects and house building

Latest stats pour cold water on construction growth prospects and house building

For those who read the latest output figures and cheerily saw an industry enjoying boom level growth in the second quarter, here is a bucket of cold water from the national statisticians at the ONS – the new orders figures. The fact that the orders figures are down is not totally unexpected. There was a clear and planned surge in public sector spending – some cynically suggesting that this was connected to the General Election in May. This surge was…

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A last hurrah for construction before the axe falls

A last hurrah for construction before the axe falls

If you didn’t know what was coming, you could read the latest set of figures for construction orders and output as very promising indeed, with contractors both winning more work and doing more work in recent months. In constant prices, output in the three months to May was as strong as in any quarter since the third quarter of 2008 – you remember the quarter in which Lehman Brothers collapsed and the world’s financial markets went into convulsions. Certainly, after…

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The housing market stalls

The housing market stalls

As the latest round of monthly housing market indicators spills new insight into the pot of understanding the figures seem to support earlier suggestions that both activity and prices are stalling. The pattern is varied regionally and confused by the General Election, pre-Budget anticipation over the increases in Capital Gains Tax for second home owners, the suspension of Home Improvement Packs and the ripples generated by the changes to stamp duty. But the overall trend does now seems to suggest…

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RICS shows construction emerging from recession, but is it really?

RICS shows construction emerging from recession, but is it really?

In the current climate it is encouraging to see construction indicators finally point to growth. And so it is good to welcome the return of the RICS construction workload index into positive territory after two years of slump. Sadly, as is the case with many construction indicators, when they are showing positive results it doesn’t necessarily mean that we are enjoying growth or that growth is coming to construction. So it is I suspect with the latest construction survey from…

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Latest construction forecasts suggest there is more to fear than hope for

Latest construction forecasts suggest there is more to fear than hope for

The latest round of forecasting by construction experts paints a picture little changed from three months ago with little hope of significant growth, much uncertainty and the risks to growth heavily weighted on the down side. The general pattern they expect can be seen from the graph (right). It shows that after the biggest recorded annual fall since comparable records began in 1955 the forecasters expect a continued slide this year. There is some variation in views on this, with…

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