Shocking yes, but we should have expected a sharp fall in construction output
Today’s estimated second quarter fall in construction output of 5.2% presented in the GDP data has caused quite a ripple of shock. Should it?
Forecasters see longer deeper double dip for construction
The latest batch of industry forecasts are emerging and they show construction locked in a deeper recession than previous expected. The recovery now looks further away. Top graph shows how the industry appears to be facing a pretty deep and protracted second recession.
Output data add to worries over private sector weakness as public sector cuts hit workloads
The latest output figures released by the Office for National Statistics on Friday appear to support growing concerns that the decline in construction workload might be accelerating. Analysis of the data suggests that as the decline in public sector work is gathering pace the recovery in the private sector is petering out.
Whatever the revisions to the official figures they point to a tough time for construction
The Office for National Statistics confirmed its preliminary estimate that construction was again in technical recession. Indeed its latest estimate is that construction fell further in the first quarter of this year, dropping by 4.8% rather than the 3% it estimated for the GDP figures released late last month. Not too much should be read into the revision. The scope for revisions up and down was great as the initial stab was based on limited data. It was also unclear…
The solution is construction, but the answer is not just any old construction – Part 2
Yesterday’s blog looked at the need to boost construction and the huge benefits the nation gains from focusing on job-intensive work. Today we’ll look at how else we might boost construction to generate economic growth and, interestingly, reduce the deficit. But before that it’s worth noting that favouring job-intensive construction is not just about where to channel public spending. It’s also about how Government frames policy and incentives. Yesterday I received a tweet putting the case for cutting VAT to 5% on repair…
As official figures point to decline, Markit/CIPS survey suggests the good times are back
The latest construction survey from Markit/CIPS points once again to an industry firmly in growth. Its main PMI indicator for April reads 55.8, with 50 being no growth. This reading will put more heat into the row over whether the official statistics that show construction in recession provide a fair reading. Although the Markit/CIPS survey shows suggests a slight relaxation in growth when compared with last month’s reading, it continues a trend that points to pretty respectable growth. The recent readings…
What if ONS reports a construction collapse tomorrow?
Tomorrow we get the first hint of how construction might perform this year when the Gross Domestic Product preliminary estimate figures for the first quarter are released. Looking at the initial data on construction output for this year, I suggest everyone should be prepared for a nasty number to emerge within the data for construction’s contribution. But while I think it likely, that doesn’t mean it will. There are things we don’t know. What will early returns for March show?…
The positive possibilities emerging from some very negative probabilities for construction
There’s very often a paradoxical upside to bad news, as I’m sure the Taoists among us will readily accept. It will be disturbing news if the next set of stats show that measured construction output collapsed in the first of this year. But, weird as it may seem, that might just provide a fillip for real action to support an industry that gets more political attention than it does sensible assistance. Let’s start the story from the growing media attention…
Construction seems to be back in recession and this time its the big firms in the firing line
I will be shocked if construction is not in a technical recession when the first quarter figures are published in a month’s time. That is providing the official construction output data for Great Britain released today is not fantastically revised. What is more we should expect to see bigger contractors squealing the most, as it is the markets they dominate that seem to be under most pressure. I have done a few back-of-an-envelope calculations and (unless I am very much out of…
Plant hire activity rises again in 2011 Q4
Thanks to swift and generous efforts made by the Office for National Statistics I can give you the latest official update of activity in the rental and leasing world. The latest data – a non-published sub-set of the Index of Services released this morning – shows a continued rise in the amount of work done by plant hire firms in the final quarter. I have also updated the construction output figures to the latest index provided in the GDP series….