Browsed by
Tag: economy

Today’s GDP figures and why I think Government remains totally wrong on construction

Today’s GDP figures and why I think Government remains totally wrong on construction

The GDP data provided the Chancellor George Osborne with solace. The 0.3% quarterly rise allowed him to suggest the figures provided evidence that the economy is healing. Had the figures shown a decline he would have been fending off a huge amount of flak. That’s politics. But the figures mean little in the grand scheme of things unless they work some magic on the animal spirits within the economy. The economy is probably rising very gently, but far too slowly…

Read More Read More

Construction forecasts shaded up, but still predict recession dragging on into 2014

Construction forecasts shaded up, but still predict recession dragging on into 2014

The main industry forecasters have revised up their expectations for the future path of construction output. The revisions from the previous forecast three months or so ago suggest there will be an extra one billion or so pounds worth of work flowing into construction this year than previously expected. Part of this is statistical, as the latest Office for National Statistics data puts the fall in 2012 at less than first thought. But, even so, the forecasters have slightly shaded…

Read More Read More

The answer is expect falling construction to prompt a triple dip – but what was the question?

The answer is expect falling construction to prompt a triple dip – but what was the question?

It’s hard not to get caught up in the silly guessing game over whether the nation will tumble into a triple-dip recession or not. Yes it is totemic. But actually measuring growth to an accuracy of 0.1% is pretty tricky and revisions over time can eliminate or even reverse growth rates. The reality is that growth is very weak, if there is any, at the moment and that is horrible, especially for construction where its growth requires at least modest…

Read More Read More

The latest construction output figures are very disturbing

The latest construction output figures are very disturbing

The graph probably says it all. The construction output figures are looking very disturbing. This will not come as a surprise to many, but the confirmation of fears provides little solace. Yes we can blame the weather. Yes we can note that the figures bounce about a lot. Yes we can find comfort in the possibility of revisions. But as they stand and as far as you can make out from the historic data the figures suggest that construction probably…

Read More Read More

Why GDP growth is the most likely salvation for construction

Why GDP growth is the most likely salvation for construction

There’s constant talk of this growth policy and that growth policy centred on construction. Big-looking numbers are bandied about. Then not a lot happens. Perhaps that’s just politics in the modern media age where it is assumed that the memory of past policies is overwritten by the latest. Cynicism aside, while the flim flam and bluster of politics is a barrier to getting useful things done, more worrying to me is a seeming lack of understanding of scale. Put simply…

Read More Read More

What can you do when a radical and unashamedly ambitious housing strategy isn’t enough?

What can you do when a radical and unashamedly ambitious housing strategy isn’t enough?

Listening to the Budget speech is often theatre, with oohs and ahhs. Reading the documents is more often a prosaic task punctuated with eh? and what? This Budget provided no exception. Even though it failed to light fires for the construction industry, it did provide interest. George Osborne’s Help to Buy scheme captured the imagination as he spoke. Sadly, unpicking the detail, such as it is, there is plenty of scope for both questions and concern. The Chancellor was not…

Read More Read More

Is the construction industry 13% bigger than we think it is and does it matter?

Is the construction industry 13% bigger than we think it is and does it matter?

Here’s an intriguing puzzle. Why would an alternative measure of construction activity suggest the industry is about 13% bigger than the official construction output figures show? Also, why would this measure of the annual increase in capital goods resulting from construction (gross fixed capital formation) suggest the industry has fallen 20% from peak rather than the 10% the construction output figures suggest? This has been bugging me for some time and some months ago I turned to the Office for…

Read More Read More

Construction continues to tank, but we need a considered response not knee-jerk policies

Construction continues to tank, but we need a considered response not knee-jerk policies

The latest monthly construction output figures from the ONS for January provide little to surprise those who have been following their progress of late. They remain horribly worrying. The figures show construction output in January adjusted for inflation down 6.3% on December and 7.9% down on January 2012. Given there is no seasonal adjustment, it is best to measure output adjusted for inflation on a 12-month-rolling basis. On this measure output continues to slide with the annual size of the…

Read More Read More

How can I put this? The Government remains clueless on how to boost house building

How can I put this? The Government remains clueless on how to boost house building

The latest house building data show we have now endured the three worst years in England for new home completions since 1946. More homes were built in the single year of 1967 than were built in 2010, 2011 and 2012 put together. The figures again underline the limpness of Government strategy in dealing with the housing crisis. Given the projected path we set ourselves as a nation back in 2007, we should be building at twice the current rate. That…

Read More Read More

The figures point to more job losses for construction over the year ahead

The figures point to more job losses for construction over the year ahead

The latest employment figures show construction losing a further 25,000 jobs in the final quarter of last year, following a slight increase in the workforce in the spring and summer. This leaves construction employment down 20,000 on a year ago. Taken from the peak in September 2008, the number employed in construction has fallen by 428,000, roughly 17%. But perhaps of more note is the mix of that workforce. The number of self-employed workers actually increased in the final quarter…

Read More Read More