The latest official house building figures came out today. With the exception of the housing minister Grant Shapps they seem almost universally to have been greeted with great concern. To put it bluntly, they’re awful.
For many economists and commentators the employment data released today by the Office for National Statistics were better than expected. The figures hint at a few more people employed and a few fewer unemployed people across the economy, if we look at the seasonally adjusted data. But compared with a year ago the number of people employed is pretty much the same, given the potential for errors inevitable in such data.
The Office for National Statistics confirmed its preliminary estimate that construction was again in technical recession. Indeed its latest estimate is that construction fell further in the first quarter of this year, dropping by 4.8% rather than the 3% it estimated for the GDP figures released late last month. Not too much should be read into the revision. The scope for revisions up and down was great as the initial stab was based on limited data. It was also unclear…
The latest construction survey from Markit/CIPS points once again to an industry firmly in growth. Its main PMI indicator for April reads 55.8, with 50 being no growth. This reading will put more heat into the row over whether the official statistics that show construction in recession provide a fair reading. Although the Markit/CIPS survey shows suggests a slight relaxation in growth when compared with last month’s reading, it continues a trend that points to pretty respectable growth. The recent readings…
For those who like their news good, the story in the latest construction industry forecasts is that the mood is less pessimistic than it was three months ago. The two forecasts out so far in this spring round – Experian and Hewes & Associates – both tweaked their figures upwards for output over the next three years. Looking at this year, Experian revised its forecast from -5.6% to -4.4%, while Hewes saw a case to reduce the fall from -6.5%…
Much fuss is made over the monthly ups and downs of housing price indicators. But in reality those released recently suggest the average UK house price remains more or less locked at the steady altitude it has followed for more than a year. Taking a consensus from the plethora of available measures suggests an average home costs you today within 1% (probably 1% less) of what it would have cost a year ago and more or less the same as…
The latest national jobs figures may well provide some comfort for those in construction as they show that the level of employment held up last year. The number of jobs stood at 2,052,000 on the workforce jobs by industry count. And employment on the Labour Force Survey count stood at 2,165,000. Given the margins of error in the surveys the broad picture, as we see from graph 1, is of a flat jobs market in construction for the best part of…
The latest construction output figures add further weight to fears that the industry is heading into recession. At first glance the figures may seem reasonably positive. The volume of work carried out in the three months to January was a shade (0.7%) up on last year. This seems to suggest that construction is holding its own in tough circumstances. Looked at on an annualised basis construction has been broadly flat since May last year, as we can see from the…
Over recent months there’s been a growing mood to exploit the power of quantitative easing to accelerate growth in key parts of the UK economy and for the Bank of England to buy other assets other than Gilts – UK Government bonds. Here in Part 1 I’ll be looking at the background to these calls and, in Part 2, I’ll look at why, if we are to experiment further with QE, we should look to housing as the alternative to Gilts…
What makes the latest survey of specialist contractors by the trade body NSCC of particular concern is that, for the first time in two years, it hints heavily at recession. It’s in the nature of surveys such as this to bounce about a bit, so it’s unwise to read too much into relatively small movements in its indicators, even if the readings are taken quarterly. And it should be noted that changes in sentiment about wider issues than construction can…