For those hypersensitive to twitches in the housing market the latest batch of data will not be comforting. Today we see the housing survey results for April from the surveyors’ body RICS, which its economists interpret as revealing a broad-based improvement, albeit within a market that remains fragile.
The latest batch of trade surveys provide us with some interesting counterpoint to the first official estimates of construction output, suggesting growth rather than contraction. Within the preliminary estimate of GDP released late last month by the Office for National Statistics was an estimate that construction output shrank 4.7% in the first quarter of this year compared with the previous quarter. If correct, this would be a blow to hopes of recovery, meaning that the start of this year was…
The massive heat generated over the latest GDP figures says something rather worrying about the broader understanding of construction and its position in the psyche of the nation and its policy makers. Construction has played a major part in determining the officially accepted shape of the nation’s economic growth. More than any other industry – save manufacturing – it has been a critical player. Indeed more than any other it helped stave off a worse recession – classic Keynesian economics…
The economy is flatlining – that is the assessment we are encouraged to draw from the first stab at national output by the statisticians at ONS. The 0.5% growth in the first quarter of this year to counter the 0.5% snow induced fall in 2010 Q4 was very much in line with the consensus view among economists. So it will not come as a surprise. But the stagnation over the past six months implied by the figures is a blow…
The latest figures from HM Revenue & Customs underline the fragility of the current housing market, showing continued falls in sales of homes. The data show the number of property transactions, seasonally adjusted, in the UK fell in the first three months of this year to a level last seen in July 2009.
The latest forecasts have been released for construction and, while it may not look like it, they are a shade more optimistic than they were at the tail end of last year. That said the picture remains broadly the same, with the industry heading into a second dip of recession before increased buoyancy in the private sector replaces falling public sector funding and drags construction back into growth.
The latest official figures for construction output suggest a leap of 8.6% in construction work in February following the recorded fall of 6.8% in January. What does this tell us?
My thanks go to Marco Yu who quite correctly pointed out to me that I had made a mistake in a graph tracking construction output and the index of services data for hire of equipment, which I re-used on March 30 in a blog on having put it together for an earlier blog on February 25. I say thanks despite the need to eat a large dollop of humble pie and apologise for inadvertently misleading those who take an interest…
Yesterday the allocations were released for the New Homes Bonus. And Grant Shapps happily slapped away criticisms that councils in the North were being unfairly treated under the scheme saying three of the top five councils benefiting most are in the North or Midlands. His geography may have been correct when reading from the list of the biggest lumps of money allocated. Sadly he appears to have revealed either his ineptitude with statistics or his willingness to abuse their meaning.
The latest construction activity survey by Markit/CIPS suggests that the construction market remains pretty buoyant, with a monthly growth rate at 56.4 for March. This was above the long-term average of around 54. However, you should be a bit cautious before drawing the conclusion that the industry is in fine fettle from these figures. Not that many with a grip on reality would.