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Housing market picks up speed, but where’s it heading?

Housing market picks up speed, but where’s it heading?

Whatever measure you use for house price inflation the figure for 2013 seems increasingly likely to be closer to 10% than 0%. At least the latest (November) HM Treasury Forecasts for the UK economy puts the median of the forecasts it compared at 5.9%. This would not be exceptional growth, but pretty strong given that a year ago more forecasters (on my reckoning) expected house prices to stagnate or fall than to rise. These were sound forecasts with the economy…

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Those house building numbers: Joy, reality then annoyance

Those house building numbers: Joy, reality then annoyance

The latest official housing figures provide a bit of a puzzle. The uplift in the actual figures doesn’t look that spectacular when you plot the graphs, so why is there so much fuss? The tale on the street is that house building is booming. Brick shortages, skills shortages, rising prices, it has to be a boom. And picked judiciously the figures are powerful. Private starts were up 29% in the third quarter compared with last year. Housing associations also started…

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Plant hire prices dip slightly despite upturn in construction

Plant hire prices dip slightly despite upturn in construction

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics for the third quarter of this year show that construction plant hire prices have not risen despite the recent upturn in construction activity and the widening view that the recovery is gathering pace. Prices remain at a level not far above the lowest for the past decade, having dipped 0.4% in the third quarter. Prices were, however, up 0.5% on the third quarter a year earlier. But this is scant consolation given…

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Six graphs showing the pain suffered by construction firms from 2008 to 2012

Six graphs showing the pain suffered by construction firms from 2008 to 2012

Recessions are gruesome and unfair things. They do not strike evenly and that is plain to see in this selection of graphs drawn from data  the provisional results of the Annual Business Survey 2012, released today. Readers should use caution and note that these are figures taken from businesses. They do not necessarily reflect the actual performance of the industries as a whole, as for instance the turnover data are not consolidated. So it will reflect, for instance, intertrading among firms…

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Is income inequality screwing up the housing market? I’m curious

Is income inequality screwing up the housing market? I’m curious

For the past few years three questions have bugged me persistently. How could rising income inequality over the past thirty years not have affected the housing market? If it has had significant effects, what are they and how have these come about? Why is so little political and, it seems, academic attention paid to how income inequality might cause dysfunction within the housing market? This is in contrast to the more significant attention paid to how a dysfunctional housing system…

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Sluggish rise in construction job creation, but the signs of future labour shortages increase

Sluggish rise in construction job creation, but the signs of future labour shortages increase

For all the shouts and screams about a surge in construction activity there are few signs in the latest employment figures of a surge in employment. The figures show industry employment in the third quarter up 0.7% on a year ago. But the number directly employed was actually down on a year ago. The number of self-employed however has jumped 4%. The rise in the number of self-employed may be a better sign of the growing demand for workers, as…

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Latest surveys suggest house price inflation is accelerating. That’s not a good thing

Latest surveys suggest house price inflation is accelerating. That’s not a good thing

The latest batch of statistics on the housing market have all been impressive, suggesting broad and strong growth in house sales and house prices. The RICS survey out today shows that over the past few months there has been a sustained increase in all the main indicators. A hefty majority of estate agents have seen increases in achieved prices, they expect further increases, they have seen rises in enquiries from new buyers and instructions from new sellers, and their level…

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Growth for construction in third quarter, but less than some surveys suggested

Growth for construction in third quarter, but less than some surveys suggested

The latest construction output data shows the industry is growing, but a little less quickly than the earlier official estimate and significantly less than some surveys suggested. According to the figures output in the third quarter rose 1.7%, compared with an earlier estimate of 2.5% provided with the GDP figures released late last month. Broadly speaking this is of no great consequence. The key point is that activity has now increased for two successive quarters and there’s growing confidence that recovery…

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Why brick data are still useful in tracking house building – if less so than in the past

Why brick data are still useful in tracking house building – if less so than in the past

The latest Building materials and components statistics were released by the business department BIS today. So I thought it worth having a wee peek at how facing brick deliveries have been going, given the general fuss about house building. I tweeted a few graphs earlier to show how brick deliveries had changed, which as I suggested provides a hint at changes in house-building activity. But it seems wise to add a few words of caution, since, as with all data,…

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Sustained output growth is just the start of a long recovery for construction

Sustained output growth is just the start of a long recovery for construction

The latest Markit/CIPS survey of construction activity came out yesterday grabbing big headlines and very possibly spectacularly misinforming the general public. The most common interpretation seems to be: “Construction grows at fastest rate for six years.” This is not surprising because it was what the Markit release actually said. I’m not saying this is bonkers, but it would surprise quite a few people if the official construction output figures record the fastest growth in six years in either the third…

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