There will be some people expelling phews of relief at seeing construction output for the second quarter revised up by the Office for National Statistics from a dramatic drop of 5.2% to a less frightful fall of 3.9%. Certainly this will have the effect, all other things being equal, of lifting the rather shocking GDP drop of 0.7% by 0.1% or so. Not much, but a little.
Today’s estimated second quarter fall in construction output of 5.2% presented in the GDP data has caused quite a ripple of shock. Should it?
The consensus among UK’s top construction forecasters is that things are worse than we thought. A week ago we saw Experian and Leading Edge downgrade their forecasts for construction growth. This week we see the Construction Products Association do the same and Hewes & Associates will follow suit when it is published shortly.
The RIBA future trends survey index took a hit in June falling from 13 to 2. This finding that architects are less optimistic about prospects is pretty much in line with what looks like a coordinated decline in optimism across the construction supply chain.
The latest construction output figures suggest the decline is the industry is gathering pace.
The Euroconstruct conference held earlier this month in London provided lashings of gloom, but it also provided plenty of food for thought. The twice-yearly conference brings together the thoughts and expectations of construction economic research groups covering 19 European countries. I have not been for many years and forgot how useful it was to look at the similarities and differences between countries. Even if you are not that interested in other European construction markets, seeing how they are performing helps…
The latest output figures released by the Office for National Statistics on Friday appear to support growing concerns that the decline in construction workload might be accelerating. Analysis of the data suggests that as the decline in public sector work is gathering pace the recovery in the private sector is petering out.
Housing Minister Grant Shapps has an exceptional quality. He sees sunshine when all about him see black clouds. That’s an uplifting and admirable quality, up to a point. That point appears to have been reached.
The latest official data for new orders in construction could be read as good news. They show an up-tick of almost 5% in the first quarter of this year on the seasonally adjusted measure. That sounds promising on the face of it and many might claim that it is. But that would be to look at a small detail in a much bigger picture that looks far from promising.
The latest official house building figures came out today. With the exception of the housing minister Grant Shapps they seem almost universally to have been greeted with great concern. To put it bluntly, they’re awful.