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Tag: recession

Reading the runes of the RICS construction survey and finding optimism elsewhere

Reading the runes of the RICS construction survey and finding optimism elsewhere

Today I read headlines suggesting the recovery in construction is on its way. Ultimately it is, but when? The cause of the excitement was the RICS construction market survey, which comes hard on the heels of lots of seemingly more favourable data. The RICS survey is a useful tool and potentially a good early indicator of the fortunes of the wider construction industry. But the data need to be interpreted with caution. So while many of the indicators in the…

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Signs of recovery and the cost of missed opportunities in the housing market

Signs of recovery and the cost of missed opportunities in the housing market

The latest housing market data all point to a recovery. Mortgage approvals measured over three months are at a three-year high. Prices are rising. Sales are more buoyant. Starts appear to be on the way up. Indeed more positive wider economic news of late no doubt has helped underpin a sense of confidence, while the periodic scares from the Euro area seem to create less fear each time they come into focus and fade again. The improved housing statistics should…

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Signs of stability in construction activity, but recovery looks a way off yet

Signs of stability in construction activity, but recovery looks a way off yet

The latest monthly construction output figures from the Office for National Statistics provided little extra insight into either the travails of or the prospects for the industry, other than to hint that the rate of decline may be easing. Looking at the graph we can see a teasing turn in the downward trend in the 12-month total of construction output of late. And certainly there appear to be no shocks in the data when examining the finer details at sector level….

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It’s worrying that we are losing construction jobs. But equally disturbing is the loss of capacity

It’s worrying that we are losing construction jobs. But equally disturbing is the loss of capacity

The latest ONS labour market figures showing workforce jobs in construction pretty much mirror expectations with a drop of 53,000 from the 2012 Q1 to 2013 Q1. This is pretty much in line with the employment figures published last month which showed a fall of 41,000 over the same period. Interestingly the brunt of the more recent losses appears to have been taken by the self-employed, which had been significantly less impacted through most of the recessionary period since 2008….

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Latest new orders figures provide little to be cheery about

Latest new orders figures provide little to be cheery about

The latest construction new orders figures from the Office for National Statistics provide little comfort for an industry seemingly trapped in a long running slump. Look through the volatility and we see a new stability, so things don’t appear to be getting much worse. But the level of new orders won is running at about two thirds of peak. What makes this disturbing is that it the volume of orders being won has been about the same level for the…

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Punch drunk construction finds a prop in rich investors in London housing

Punch drunk construction finds a prop in rich investors in London housing

Yes folks the construction industry is partying like it was 1999. Sounds like fun, but sadly it means that all the growth achieved this century has been wiped out. And while we metaphorically vomit into the punch bowl, here’s a thought to sober us up. If it wasn’t for rich foreign and indeed rich British investors pumping cash into London residential property the construction industry would probably be closing in on a drop of nearer to a quarter from peak…

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Today’s GDP figures and why I think Government remains totally wrong on construction

Today’s GDP figures and why I think Government remains totally wrong on construction

The GDP data provided the Chancellor George Osborne with solace. The 0.3% quarterly rise allowed him to suggest the figures provided evidence that the economy is healing. Had the figures shown a decline he would have been fending off a huge amount of flak. That’s politics. But the figures mean little in the grand scheme of things unless they work some magic on the animal spirits within the economy. The economy is probably rising very gently, but far too slowly…

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Construction forecasts shaded up, but still predict recession dragging on into 2014

Construction forecasts shaded up, but still predict recession dragging on into 2014

The main industry forecasters have revised up their expectations for the future path of construction output. The revisions from the previous forecast three months or so ago suggest there will be an extra one billion or so pounds worth of work flowing into construction this year than previously expected. Part of this is statistical, as the latest Office for National Statistics data puts the fall in 2012 at less than first thought. But, even so, the forecasters have slightly shaded…

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The answer is expect falling construction to prompt a triple dip – but what was the question?

The answer is expect falling construction to prompt a triple dip – but what was the question?

It’s hard not to get caught up in the silly guessing game over whether the nation will tumble into a triple-dip recession or not. Yes it is totemic. But actually measuring growth to an accuracy of 0.1% is pretty tricky and revisions over time can eliminate or even reverse growth rates. The reality is that growth is very weak, if there is any, at the moment and that is horrible, especially for construction where its growth requires at least modest…

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The latest construction output figures are very disturbing

The latest construction output figures are very disturbing

The graph probably says it all. The construction output figures are looking very disturbing. This will not come as a surprise to many, but the confirmation of fears provides little solace. Yes we can blame the weather. Yes we can note that the figures bounce about a lot. Yes we can find comfort in the possibility of revisions. But as they stand and as far as you can make out from the historic data the figures suggest that construction probably…

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