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Tag: ONS

Is income inequality screwing up the housing market? I’m curious

Is income inequality screwing up the housing market? I’m curious

For the past few years three questions have bugged me persistently. How could rising income inequality over the past thirty years not have affected the housing market? If it has had significant effects, what are they and how have these come about? Why is so little political and, it seems, academic attention paid to how income inequality might cause dysfunction within the housing market? This is in contrast to the more significant attention paid to how a dysfunctional housing system…

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Growth for construction in third quarter, but less than some surveys suggested

Growth for construction in third quarter, but less than some surveys suggested

The latest construction output data shows the industry is growing, but a little less quickly than the earlier official estimate and significantly less than some surveys suggested. According to the figures output in the third quarter rose 1.7%, compared with an earlier estimate of 2.5% provided with the GDP figures released late last month. Broadly speaking this is of no great consequence. The key point is that activity has now increased for two successive quarters and there’s growing confidence that recovery…

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Sustained output growth is just the start of a long recovery for construction

Sustained output growth is just the start of a long recovery for construction

The latest Markit/CIPS survey of construction activity came out yesterday grabbing big headlines and very possibly spectacularly misinforming the general public. The most common interpretation seems to be: “Construction grows at fastest rate for six years.” This is not surprising because it was what the Markit release actually said. I’m not saying this is bonkers, but it would surprise quite a few people if the official construction output figures record the fastest growth in six years in either the third…

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Strengthening data push construction forecasters towards greater optimism

Strengthening data push construction forecasters towards greater optimism

Construction industry forecasters have been busily upgrading their forecasts in the light of a turnaround in industry fortunes since Spring. Despite all raising their expectations for the future path of construction, at first glance the forecasts from Construction Products Association, Experian and Hewes appear to be telling very different stories. That certainly seems to be the take-away message from the graph. In some ways they are telling different tales, but in reality there’s more similarity than meets the eye. One…

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Why averages are not what they used to be

Why averages are not what they used to be

I had a conversation this morning with Jules Birch about the irritating and downright misleading way statistics are often used. This misuse may be intended or accidental, but the net result is the same. People are fed a distorted picture of reality which influences their view of the world. More worryingly, the misleading meanings ascribed to these statistics are repeated as facts, because they appear to be supported by hard numbers. The world becomes more ignorant and more adamant about…

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August dip of no concern as signs grow that construction is pulling out of recession

August dip of no concern as signs grow that construction is pulling out of recession

Despite the slight tick downward in the ONS seasonally adjusted construction output figure for August the signs are growing that the industry is pulling out of recession. There are many ways to measure growth, but looked at on a 12-month rolling basis output (using the non-seasonally adjusted data) seems to have bottomed out in May 2013 and we have now seen three months of improvement. This is clear from the graph, which also shows that measured on a three-monthly basis…

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Architects and engineering firms have enjoyed a growth spurt since the spring

Architects and engineering firms have enjoyed a growth spurt since the spring

Architectural and engineering firms are currently going through a growth spurt according to the latest data on services turnover. The turnover and orders in production and services industry (TOPSI) data released by ONS  late last week showed that the turnover in the three months to July for architectural and engineering firms was 13.8% higher than in the same period a year earlier. This turnover is in cash terms and, because there will be cross trading, this is not a measure…

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The official construction figures add to the growing case for cautious optimism

The official construction figures add to the growing case for cautious optimism

The latest construction output figures provide yet more reasons to suspect that the industry may be pulling itself out of its slough. This evidence is reinforced by the release of the newly-constituted new orders figures. The construction output data for July show the index of construction activity has risen to its highest level since last October. This measure, which is seasonally adjusted and deflated to account for price changes, stood in July at 95.5 against 100 in 2010. This may…

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Comparing the pattern of changes in construction jobs by region

Comparing the pattern of changes in construction jobs by region

The latest jobs figures provide yet more evidence that the collapse in construction may be slowing down. The number of construction workforce jobs on the ONS seasonally adjusted figures rose slightly and was roughly the same as in the same period a year ago. These workforce jobs figures broadly support the picture painted by the employment figures released a month ago. The workforce jobs data do however provide us with a view of what is happening at a regional level….

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Construction jobs figures provide reasons for hope and signals for action on training

Construction jobs figures provide reasons for hope and signals for action on training

It’s only one quarter’s figures and we should be cautious of statistical quirks, oddities such as last year’s Jubilympics and weather effects, but there is more promise in the latest construction jobs figures than might have been expected. Certainly the generally improved mood will mean that firms are more willing to hold onto quality people than they might have been. And there is a hint of this in the figures which show a small drop in the numbers, but an…

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