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Tag: interest rates

We’re back to double-digit growth in house prices, oh dear

We’re back to double-digit growth in house prices, oh dear

House prices are booming again, crack open the champagne! Well maybe not. If I was a house builder reading the latest survey from the Nationwide building society showing a double-digit rise in prices over the past year (see graph) I would be worried. Looking at my short-term prospects, naturally I would be chirpy about the larger profit margin I could reasonably expect on my future sales. Naturally I would be upbeat about how price competitive I can now be against…

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Latest construction forecasts suggest there is more to fear than hope for

Latest construction forecasts suggest there is more to fear than hope for

The latest round of forecasting by construction experts paints a picture little changed from three months ago with little hope of significant growth, much uncertainty and the risks to growth heavily weighted on the down side. The general pattern they expect can be seen from the graph (right). It shows that after the biggest recorded annual fall since comparable records began in 1955 the forecasters expect a continued slide this year. There is some variation in views on this, with…

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More home sellers, fewer home letters – a housing market in flux

More home sellers, fewer home letters – a housing market in flux

How should we read yesterday’s Rightmove figures showing the slowest ever March pick up in asking prices? They appear to be consistent with much of what else we are seeing in the market – a growing body of evidence that the recent bounce back in the housing market is faltering (see previous blog). The key factor slowing the rise in asking prices (see graph) Rightmove isolated was a rise in properties coming onto the market – up 34% on the…

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Was it just the cold or is it a relapse?

Was it just the cold or is it a relapse?

There are plenty of people, “experts” indeed, who fully expect a double-dip recession for both the economy and, for that matter, house prices. For them the data emerging for January’s performance appears to be, albeit gently, vindicating their position. They will no doubt seize with alacrity the retail figures from the British Retail Consortium showing the worst January sales data for 15 years. Those who take a different perspective will write the slump in sales off to the coldest January…

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The cruelty of breeding force-fed first-time buyers

The cruelty of breeding force-fed first-time buyers

Here’s a question that goes right to the heart of current housing policy: Should we be using incentives as readily as we are to encourage first-time buyers onto the property ladder? However iconoclastic or contrary this question may seem, it needs to be asked. There is so much at stake.