House prices are showing signs of greater stability after the falls in the second half of last year. Today Hometrack released figures showing prices in March were just 0.1% down while Nationwide released a figure of plus 0.5%. But the big question on everyone’s mind is where to from here for the market as homebuyers and sellers adjust to the squeeze within the economy. And among construction folk what does this all mean for house building.
The Panorama programme due to be aired this evening is rightly getting a lot of publicity with figures showing that people’s earnings have fallen in “real” terms by about 5% during the past two years. But you really don’t need particularly detailed analysis to show how hard people’s earnings have been hit. As this blog has shown before, while pay has been hit hard in real terms, construction folk have taken a much heftier hit than most. Using the RPIX…
The first look at the inflation figures provide plenty of room to be very pessimistic if you owe lots of money and are on a tight budget. The jump in the CPI measure of inflation to 4.4% in February was more than many forecasters had expected. It will inevitably add to pressure on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee to raise interest rates – if for no other reason than a perceived need to restore its dented confidence. For the…
Today’s release of the public sector finances will be a knock to the Chancellor George Osborne as they show borrowing up more than expected. Indeed at £23.3 billion (net of any financial interventions) in cash terms that is the most the UK has had to borrow in a month ever, at least as far as I could see. And tomorrow we will most likely see the official statistics for UK economic growth in the second quarter revised down – probably…
The Halifax house price index crept down today and appears to be on a path of slow decline, which is broadly in line with most other house price indicators. And as we can see from the graph transactions remain subdued and mortgage approvals are also on a gentle downward slide. But while the current slide in the market may be unsettling, it will be the next few months that will prove particularly nail biting for those whose fortunes are pinned…
It came as little surprise that the Nationwide house price survey should show a fall in July. And it showed a pretty significant fall of 0.5% on its seasonally adjusted series. It had been for many months among the more bullish of the indexes measuring inflation in the UK housing market, at a time when others were showing the market sliding backwards. But like most of the indexes, the Nationwide has had to draw big conclusions from a rather thinner…
The big question after today’s release of the Halifax house price index is whether the market is heading for a protracted decline or whether prices will stabilise and hold or continue to creep up from the trough of a year or so ago. It must be said that today’s figures, which show the third in a straight set of monthly declines, fit the pattern expected given the recent movement in what might be regarded as leading indicators for house prices….
Given the potential for increased pain in the gift of George Osborne there will be a feeling that construction hasn’t come out as badly as it might have from the emergency Budget. But “unavoidably”, as Chancellor Osborne might say, the construction industry will have to share some of the pain for the folly of the banks as the nation seeks to balance its budget. There will however have been a great deal of relief when the Chancellor said that capital spending…
Could it be that we are about to witness the beginnings of widening concerns over rising inflation? The Consumer Prices Index “surprise” jump to 3.7% yesterday will certainly increase rumblings in the markets and elsewhere. Although for the time being I suspect attention will be more focused on June 22 and George Osborne’s first budget, which could after all produce some pretty hefty downward pressure on inflation, if the output from the rumour mill has any value. However, if inflation does…
I would like to be among those welcoming Grant Shapps to his new role as housing minister and wishing him well. I must admit I have not been particularly kind to his ideas to date. It’s my job to be critical I guess. But for the record I do have a degree of admiration for his fervent faith in localism, for which I have much sympathy, albeit with a shed load of doubts. Somehow it chimes with the anarcho-syndicalist spirit…