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Tag: double dip

Why the spending review might prove a turning onto the road to Nirvana for house builders

Why the spending review might prove a turning onto the road to Nirvana for house builders

What do the cuts in the spending review mean for house builders? Who really knows? But having tried to piece together what the implications of the Chancellor’s axe wielding are for housing, house builders, housing associations and contractors who build homes, I can’t help thinking what some might regard as the unthinkable. I may be deluded or befuddled by the blur of jumbled numbers, but far from being bad news, I think there is a possibility that things might pan…

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Latest stats pour cold water on construction growth prospects and house building

Latest stats pour cold water on construction growth prospects and house building

For those who read the latest output figures and cheerily saw an industry enjoying boom level growth in the second quarter, here is a bucket of cold water from the national statisticians at the ONS – the new orders figures. The fact that the orders figures are down is not totally unexpected. There was a clear and planned surge in public sector spending – some cynically suggesting that this was connected to the General Election in May. This surge was…

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A double-dip in house prices isn’t really the problem

A double-dip in house prices isn’t really the problem

The Nationwide house price survey showing a drop of 0.9% following a 0.5% drop in July adds yet more weight to the growing view that house prices are sagging and are set to sag further. The Halifax index peaked in March and fell monthly up to a minor rally in July. The Acadmetrics index has been heading south since March, although it similarly saw a gentle uplift of 0.1% in July. Hometrack went 0.1% negative in July and the drop…

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A last hurrah for construction before the axe falls

A last hurrah for construction before the axe falls

If you didn’t know what was coming, you could read the latest set of figures for construction orders and output as very promising indeed, with contractors both winning more work and doing more work in recent months. In constant prices, output in the three months to May was as strong as in any quarter since the third quarter of 2008 – you remember the quarter in which Lehman Brothers collapsed and the world’s financial markets went into convulsions. Certainly, after…

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More than 300,000 construction jobs axed so far in this recession

More than 300,000 construction jobs axed so far in this recession

Construction lost 63,000 jobs in the first quarter of this year and has shed more than 300,000 since the recession bit hard after Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008. The latest employment figures are based on a slightly different assessment of the industry (Standard Industrial Classification 2007 is used) and paint an even gloomy picture of the trajectory of construction jobs than did the previous series (see graph). At peak in September 2008 the statisticians now reckon there were 2,364,000…

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Construction will not come out unscathed from Osborne’s Budget, but it could’ve been worse

Construction will not come out unscathed from Osborne’s Budget, but it could’ve been worse

Given the potential for increased pain in the gift of George Osborne there will be a feeling that construction hasn’t come out as badly as it might have from the emergency Budget. But “unavoidably”, as Chancellor Osborne might say, the construction industry will have to share some of the pain for the folly of the banks as the nation seeks to balance its budget. There will however have been a great deal of relief when the Chancellor said that capital spending…

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We’re back to double-digit growth in house prices, oh dear

We’re back to double-digit growth in house prices, oh dear

House prices are booming again, crack open the champagne! Well maybe not. If I was a house builder reading the latest survey from the Nationwide building society showing a double-digit rise in prices over the past year (see graph) I would be worried. Looking at my short-term prospects, naturally I would be chirpy about the larger profit margin I could reasonably expect on my future sales. Naturally I would be upbeat about how price competitive I can now be against…

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It’s a double-dip recession for construction, if the statisticians’ first stab at growth is right

It’s a double-dip recession for construction, if the statisticians’ first stab at growth is right

Construction has fallen into a double-dip recession – that is if the preliminary estimates by the statisticians putting together the first quarter 2010 gross domestic product figures are to be believed. The preliminary GDP figures put growth at a pallid 0.2% for the economy as a whole. This low level of growth will be a huge worry for construction if the figure is not revised upward in later estimates. In fairness the chances of a revision upward in this data…

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Joy deferred as CIPS shows construction activity grows for first time in two years

Joy deferred as CIPS shows construction activity grows for first time in two years

So the construction activity indicator produced by the buyers’ body CIPS finally points to growth after two years of measuring falling workloads. But this seemingly uplifting moment appears to have brought little joy. The March figure popped its head above the 50 no-change mark on the back of rising activity in the housing and commercial sectors. But the survey also found more and deeper job cuts within the industry and there was a drop in the confidence within firms over…

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