Browsed by
Tag: double dip

No sign in the data that construction employment is plunging again – not yet anyway

No sign in the data that construction employment is plunging again – not yet anyway

There is no getting away from the fact that the latest UK jobs figures are depressing. There’ll be plenty of discussion about that in the general news. And it bodes ill for the economy overall and in turn for construction. But for those looking for gloom in the construction jobs figures, the data does not seem to support the view that employment levels are once again plunging. The quarterly workforce jobs figures were not updated this month. But the alternative Labour…

Read More Read More

Forecasters shade down expectations for construction on private sector growth fears

Forecasters shade down expectations for construction on private sector growth fears

The prospects for construction are worsening, that’s the picture painted by the latest set of main industry forecasts. Even the least pessimistic of the forecasts, from Leading Edge, at best suggests the industry now looks to be facing two years of a second dip into recession. Hewes, which remains the most pessimistic of the forecasters, finds little reason to suggest that the industry will still be plunging in 2013, while the Construction Products Association forecasters reckon the industry will not…

Read More Read More

First of autumn forecasts downgrades construction prospects

First of autumn forecasts downgrades construction prospects

Be prepared for a slower recovery than we were expecting – that’s that message from the first of autumn construction forecasts to emerge. Leading Edge had already penned in a double-dip recession for construction when it last produced a forecast in March, but now it expects the fall to be deeper and the recovery to be slower.

Forecasters’ views vary on depth and length of construction’s second drop into recession

Forecasters’ views vary on depth and length of construction’s second drop into recession

Hewes & Associates has once again come out with a sobering forecast for the prospects of construction that suggests a deepening recession with no end in sight within its three-year range. The graph shows how pessimistic the Hewes forecast is when compared with those of the Construction Products Association and Experian. Underlying this big difference in views between the forecasters is the view on the timing and speed at which the private sector will recover and pull construction back into…

Read More Read More

RICS sees some positive signs in the private sector, but its London and South East driven

RICS sees some positive signs in the private sector, but its London and South East driven

Viewed from a particular angle the latest construction survey from RICS seems to come out fairly positive given the current circumstances in which the industry finds itself, although it’s not as upbeat as yesterday’s serving from Markit/CIPS. Workloads are broadly flat according to the RICS survey respondents, which is a bonus in my book given the state of the economy and the outlook.

November construction output figures suggest it’s downhill from here

November construction output figures suggest it’s downhill from here

Construction output is beginning finally to show signs that it is falling into a much-expected second dip into recession after the stimulus-propelled growth earlier this year. The latest figures from the Office of National Statistics show that on a moving three-month basis the industry contracted by 1.5% in volume terms in November. The graph (right) shows the moving three-month total for output, with simple straight line estimates for monthly movements in the totals made for the pre-2010 data, which was…

Read More Read More

Some room for optimism to be found in the Experian forecast

Some room for optimism to be found in the Experian forecast

The latest Experian forecast on the face of it paints a picture of a rockier road for construction over the coming few years compared with its previous forecast. But on balance it is a slightly more optimistic picture of the path ahead for construction than is suggested by other forecast released recently. The impact of the economic stimulus on construction was perhaps stronger and more immediate than many might have expected and hence the withdrawal of the stimulus and the…

Read More Read More

Construction firms axe jobs ahead of double-dip downturn

Construction firms axe jobs ahead of double-dip downturn

The number of jobs in the construction industry fell by 17,000 in the third quarter of this year despite the continued swell in work resulting from the now fading effects of the economic stimulus. Indeed the rather lacklustre set of labour market figures released today may well be read by some as an early sign of momentum fading in the economy at large. Certainly the drop in construction job numbers will lead many to suspect that firms are already trimming…

Read More Read More

Forecasters foresee a long road to recovery for construction

Forecasters foresee a long road to recovery for construction

The latest forecast for construction growth to emerge from the Construction Products Association suggests that construction will not see growth of any significance for at least the next two years.  However, while the central projection is for a distinct double-dip in workload, even the most pessimistic scenario presented by the forecasters does not envisage a drop in construction much beyond 5%.  That would be painful but far from as dramatic as the 17% collapse from the peak quarter at the start of 2008…

Read More Read More

Construction industry is forecast to face a second double-digit decline

Construction industry is forecast to face a second double-digit decline

Construction is heading for a very nasty tumble next year after the current spurt in workload fades. That at least is the assessment of the first major industry forecast released since the Chancellor’s spending review announcements. The construction forecast by Hewes & Associates suggests that after an unexpected 5.6% rise in construction over this year as a whole, the industry will slide sharply by 5.8% next year and 4.8% in 2012. It is worth noting that the forecast by Hewes…

Read More Read More