There will be some people expelling phews of relief at seeing construction output for the second quarter revised up by the Office for National Statistics from a dramatic drop of 5.2% to a less frightful fall of 3.9%. Certainly this will have the effect, all other things being equal, of lifting the rather shocking GDP drop of 0.7% by 0.1% or so. Not much, but a little.
Today’s estimated second quarter fall in construction output of 5.2% presented in the GDP data has caused quite a ripple of shock. Should it?
The consensus among UK’s top construction forecasters is that things are worse than we thought. A week ago we saw Experian and Leading Edge downgrade their forecasts for construction growth. This week we see the Construction Products Association do the same and Hewes & Associates will follow suit when it is published shortly.
The RIBA future trends survey index took a hit in June falling from 13 to 2. This finding that architects are less optimistic about prospects is pretty much in line with what looks like a coordinated decline in optimism across the construction supply chain.
The Government’s intervention to boost infrastructure spending is timely. The construction data is almost all pointing in a southerly direction. The latest construction activity survey from the surveyors’ body RICS, released today, suggests workload among its members shrank in the second quarter.
The latest batch of industry forecasts are emerging and they show construction locked in a deeper recession than previous expected. The recovery now looks further away. Top graph shows how the industry appears to be facing a pretty deep and protracted second recession.
The latest construction output figures suggest the decline is the industry is gathering pace.
I’ve been increasingly worried about the possible collapse of the construction industry into a rather deep recession for some time. I have tended to keep my concerns in check, having gained a reputation for being gloomy. But while it’s tricky to tell accurately with the available data, the new orders figures just don’t seem to be healthy enough to me to support the current level of construction output. Ergo – to my mind at least – a nasty drop in…
The Euroconstruct conference held earlier this month in London provided lashings of gloom, but it also provided plenty of food for thought. The twice-yearly conference brings together the thoughts and expectations of construction economic research groups covering 19 European countries. I have not been for many years and forgot how useful it was to look at the similarities and differences between countries. Even if you are not that interested in other European construction markets, seeing how they are performing helps…
The latest jobs data from the Office for National Statistics support the widely held view that construction employment is falling. And, given that employment data tends to lag output data, we should then expect to see further, perhaps more significant, falls in the number employed in construction in the relatively near future.