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What brick and block shortage? What house-building boom?

What brick and block shortage? What house-building boom?

House building is enjoying its fastest growth for a decade or more and this is leading to shortages in the supply chain that threaten growth. That at least has become a widely accepted narrative that in many ways is characterising the current state of the construction industry. But is this really the case? The latest release by the business department BIS of the Monthly Bulletin of Building Materials and Components prompted me to scrutinise the data and various comments and…

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Don’t panic over construction output drop. The industry remains on a growth path

Don’t panic over construction output drop. The industry remains on a growth path

Don’t panic. Construction is still growing. The first estimate of gross domestic product may show that quarter on quarter construction output was down 0.3%. But there’s no reason to suggest underlying growth has stalled. Getting obsessed with a single quarter’s figures, let alone a single month’s figures in construction is a bit… well… obsessive. The graph shows clearly how erratic monthly data are and how, even averaged over three months, the figures still bounce quite a bit. Looking at this…

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More optimism, some caution, as all main industry forecasts see construction bounce back

More optimism, some caution, as all main industry forecasts see construction bounce back

Two more construction forecasts came out over the past week that added to the consensus that suggests construction is set for strong growth up to the General Election. Indeed, with the exception of the Hewes forecast, the view is that strong growth will continue well after 2015. The Hewes forecast tends to embrace more of the downside risks and in that respect charts a more cautious approach to potential growth. On that basis it seems reasonable to assume that it…

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Forecasters see strong growth for construction – but, then again, the General Election is coming…

Forecasters see strong growth for construction – but, then again, the General Election is coming…

The latest industry forecast will put a smile on the face of the UK construction folk. The recovery is now expected to move faster having arrived earlier than forecasters expected just three months ago. The Construction Products Association now expects to see growth in 2013 of 1% instead of the slight decline it forecast three months ago. It has also raised its forecast for 2014 to 3.4% against 2.7%. Its 2015 forecast was raised from 4.6% to very strong 5.2%….

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Is construction growing or has it gone temporarily into reverse?

Is construction growing or has it gone temporarily into reverse?

The Office for National Statistics came up with a figure that showed construction dropped 4% from October to November. It also came up with a figure that said output in November 2013 was 2.2% more than in November 2012. This may deflate some and confuse others because other data seem to show construction activity rocketing – just look at the data from Markit/CIPS or RICS. There is also a widespread mood of optimism afoot. The latest ONS data just didn’t…

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RICS survey heralds a Happy New Year. But the industry needs many happy years to regenerate

RICS survey heralds a Happy New Year. But the industry needs many happy years to regenerate

There are times when you can and should quibble over the direction of travel suggested by business surveys and nitpick over the data and methodologies. There are times when it’s pointless. This is one. There’s little doubt from the findings of the latest RICS UK Construction Market Survey. The graph rather says it all. The industry is growing strongly. That taken as given, there still remain pertinent questions and certainly there are nuances within the results that should be considered….

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Jobs data shows the very uneven recovery for construction

Jobs data shows the very uneven recovery for construction

The latest set of Office for National Statistics figures for jobs in the economy does provide reason to be encouraged. The national construction jobs figures provide relief in that there were at least as many jobs in September this year as last. Indeed the figure of 2,070,000 workforce jobs (seasonally adjusted) is the highest for three years. So we may be seeing a turning point with potentially sustained growth in employment in the coming months. Though in fairness most of…

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How the recession changed the pattern of spending on home improvements

How the recession changed the pattern of spending on home improvements

Look at the TV ads that tease you to tart up your home and guess the age of the actors. I’d say from recent ads I’ve seen they tend to be young 30s to young 40s, with a few young-faced 50 and 60 year olds making it into ads promoting replacement windows. They seem a bit older than in ads of a few years ago, but from what I can make out, the message we have drawn from these ads…

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The construction industry is £1.5 billion bigger and growing faster than we thought last month

The construction industry is £1.5 billion bigger and growing faster than we thought last month

The annual turnover of the construction industry is about £1.5 billion bigger than we thought it was last month and it is growing much faster. That really is the big story from the latest estimate of construction output made by the Office for National Statistics. This is pretty big news. It means that the estimate for GDP will be boosted by about 0.1% as a result of the revisions to the construction output data. So we should expect to see…

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Falling family spending on home improvements and the construction recession of 2005 revisited

Falling family spending on home improvements and the construction recession of 2005 revisited

Britons appear to be spending ever less on contractors to do up their homes, despite the popular view that people are investing to stay in their homes rather than move. That’s certainly what the official construction output figures show and so do the family spending data released yesterday. And the decline didn’t start with the recession it is far more longstanding. According to the family spending survey, households spend less on contractors now in cash terms than they did a…

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