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Construction seems to be back in recession and this time its the big firms in the firing line

Construction seems to be back in recession and this time its the big firms in the firing line

I will be shocked if construction is not in a technical recession when the first quarter figures are published in a month’s time. That is providing the official construction output data for Great Britain released today is not fantastically revised. What is more we should expect to see bigger contractors squealing the most, as it is the markets they dominate that seem to be under most pressure. I have done a few back-of-an-envelope calculations and (unless I am very much out of…

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The latest construction forecasts may be more optimistic, but the risks haven’t gone away

The latest construction forecasts may be more optimistic, but the risks haven’t gone away

For those who like their news good, the story in the latest construction industry forecasts is that the mood is less pessimistic than it was three months ago. The two forecasts out so far in this spring round – Experian and Hewes & Associates – both tweaked their figures upwards for output over the next three years. Looking at this year, Experian revised its forecast from -5.6% to -4.4%, while Hewes saw a case to reduce the fall from -6.5%…

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Average house prices may be stable, but the figures hide trouble

Average house prices may be stable, but the figures hide trouble

Much fuss is made over the monthly ups and downs of housing price indicators. But in reality those released recently suggest the average UK house price remains more or less locked at the steady altitude it has followed for more than a year. Taking a consensus from the plethora of available measures suggests an average home costs you today within 1% (probably 1% less) of what it would have cost a year ago and more or less the same as…

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Has the Office for Budget Responsibility misread the housing market?

Has the Office for Budget Responsibility misread the housing market?

There seems to be a fair chance the Office for Budget Responsibility’s view of the housing market may be badly awry. Why would that be that bad? 1. Because it potentially supports a complacent attitude among policy makers towards problems within the housing market. 2. Because it may well leave the Chancellor a few billion pounds light on stamp duty in a few years time. But before galumphing into why the OBR may be wrong it’s worth making a couple…

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The trouble with handing roads to private firms

The trouble with handing roads to private firms

The Government is looking hard at injecting private capital into supporting the under–strain roads network. That certainly was one of the key messages that came out of Prime Minister David Cameron’s speech at the Institution of Civil Engineers today. This and the tone of the speech tell us a few things about current Government thinking and also raise speculation about other aspects of its approach. Firstly, the green agenda is shifting. Until recently the preferred politics had been to lean…

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Construction employment holds up in 2011 – but fears remain over job prospects

Construction employment holds up in 2011 – but fears remain over job prospects

The latest national jobs figures may well provide some comfort for those in construction as they show that the level of employment held up last year. The number of jobs stood at 2,052,000 on the workforce jobs by industry count. And employment on the Labour Force Survey count stood at 2,165,000. Given the margins of error in the surveys the broad picture, as we see from graph 1, is of a flat jobs market in construction for the best part of…

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By how many will NewBuy boost house building numbers?

By how many will NewBuy boost house building numbers?

Praised in some quarters and vilified in others, NewBuy appears to have been misunderstood and over-hyped. It’s not, for instance, as some think primarily a way to get first-time buyers (FTBs) on the housing ladder and it will not generate 100,000 “extra” new homes over the next three years. It is in essence an allocation of the overall mortgage pot supported by an indemnity fund that is design to provide high loan-to-value mortgages to buy new-build homes. But while it…

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Latest construction output figures support recession fears

Latest construction output figures support recession fears

The latest construction output figures add further weight to fears that the industry is heading into recession. At first glance the figures may seem reasonably positive. The volume of work carried out in the three months to January was a shade (0.7%) up on last year. This seems to suggest that construction is holding its own in tough circumstances. Looked at on an annualised basis construction has been broadly flat since May last year, as we can see from the…

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Why calling for housing QE is not special pleading: Part 2

Why calling for housing QE is not special pleading: Part 2

If growing calls to use quantitative easing to directly stimulate weaker parts of the economy lead to a change in approach by the Bank of England it would leave a tricky question. That’s the question Sir Mervyn King, the Bank’s Governor, threw back at Treasury Committee member Andy Love last week. He asked: “Can you give me an example of the asset you think we should be purchasing. I asked the previous Chancellor and got no reply.” Mr Love gave…

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