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Punch drunk construction finds a prop in rich investors in London housing

Punch drunk construction finds a prop in rich investors in London housing

Yes folks the construction industry is partying like it was 1999. Sounds like fun, but sadly it means that all the growth achieved this century has been wiped out. And while we metaphorically vomit into the punch bowl, here’s a thought to sober us up. If it wasn’t for rich foreign and indeed rich British investors pumping cash into London residential property the construction industry would probably be closing in on a drop of nearer to a quarter from peak…

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Today’s GDP figures and why I think Government remains totally wrong on construction

Today’s GDP figures and why I think Government remains totally wrong on construction

The GDP data provided the Chancellor George Osborne with solace. The 0.3% quarterly rise allowed him to suggest the figures provided evidence that the economy is healing. Had the figures shown a decline he would have been fending off a huge amount of flak. That’s politics. But the figures mean little in the grand scheme of things unless they work some magic on the animal spirits within the economy. The economy is probably rising very gently, but far too slowly…

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Construction forecasts shaded up, but still predict recession dragging on into 2014

Construction forecasts shaded up, but still predict recession dragging on into 2014

The main industry forecasters have revised up their expectations for the future path of construction output. The revisions from the previous forecast three months or so ago suggest there will be an extra one billion or so pounds worth of work flowing into construction this year than previously expected. Part of this is statistical, as the latest Office for National Statistics data puts the fall in 2012 at less than first thought. But, even so, the forecasters have slightly shaded…

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The answer is expect falling construction to prompt a triple dip – but what was the question?

The answer is expect falling construction to prompt a triple dip – but what was the question?

It’s hard not to get caught up in the silly guessing game over whether the nation will tumble into a triple-dip recession or not. Yes it is totemic. But actually measuring growth to an accuracy of 0.1% is pretty tricky and revisions over time can eliminate or even reverse growth rates. The reality is that growth is very weak, if there is any, at the moment and that is horrible, especially for construction where its growth requires at least modest…

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The latest construction output figures are very disturbing

The latest construction output figures are very disturbing

The graph probably says it all. The construction output figures are looking very disturbing. This will not come as a surprise to many, but the confirmation of fears provides little solace. Yes we can blame the weather. Yes we can note that the figures bounce about a lot. Yes we can find comfort in the possibility of revisions. But as they stand and as far as you can make out from the historic data the figures suggest that construction probably…

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Why GDP growth is the most likely salvation for construction

Why GDP growth is the most likely salvation for construction

There’s constant talk of this growth policy and that growth policy centred on construction. Big-looking numbers are bandied about. Then not a lot happens. Perhaps that’s just politics in the modern media age where it is assumed that the memory of past policies is overwritten by the latest. Cynicism aside, while the flim flam and bluster of politics is a barrier to getting useful things done, more worrying to me is a seeming lack of understanding of scale. Put simply…

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Why the Government must look again at the New Homes Bonus

Why the Government must look again at the New Homes Bonus

As a critic of the New Homes Bonus, even before its inception, I had very mixed feelings reading the damning report that has emerged from the Government watchdog the National Audit Office. I find myself battling between the ugly side craving vindication and the better side being concerned for the potential damage done and how things might be improved. Today the devil has won. Grant Shapps: You were told, before you launched the scheme, when you launched the scheme and…

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What can you do when a radical and unashamedly ambitious housing strategy isn’t enough?

What can you do when a radical and unashamedly ambitious housing strategy isn’t enough?

Listening to the Budget speech is often theatre, with oohs and ahhs. Reading the documents is more often a prosaic task punctuated with eh? and what? This Budget provided no exception. Even though it failed to light fires for the construction industry, it did provide interest. George Osborne’s Help to Buy scheme captured the imagination as he spoke. Sadly, unpicking the detail, such as it is, there is plenty of scope for both questions and concern. The Chancellor was not…

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Is the construction industry 13% bigger than we think it is and does it matter?

Is the construction industry 13% bigger than we think it is and does it matter?

Here’s an intriguing puzzle. Why would an alternative measure of construction activity suggest the industry is about 13% bigger than the official construction output figures show? Also, why would this measure of the annual increase in capital goods resulting from construction (gross fixed capital formation) suggest the industry has fallen 20% from peak rather than the 10% the construction output figures suggest? This has been bugging me for some time and some months ago I turned to the Office for…

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Construction continues to tank, but we need a considered response not knee-jerk policies

Construction continues to tank, but we need a considered response not knee-jerk policies

The latest monthly construction output figures from the ONS for January provide little to surprise those who have been following their progress of late. They remain horribly worrying. The figures show construction output in January adjusted for inflation down 6.3% on December and 7.9% down on January 2012. Given there is no seasonal adjustment, it is best to measure output adjusted for inflation on a 12-month-rolling basis. On this measure output continues to slide with the annual size of the…

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