The Nationwide house price survey showing a drop of 0.9% following a 0.5% drop in July adds yet more weight to the growing view that house prices are sagging and are set to sag further. The Halifax index peaked in March and fell monthly up to a minor rally in July. The Acadmetrics index has been heading south since March, although it similarly saw a gentle uplift of 0.1% in July. Hometrack went 0.1% negative in July and the drop…
Construction lost 63,000 jobs in the first quarter of this year and has shed more than 300,000 since the recession bit hard after Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008. The latest employment figures are based on a slightly different assessment of the industry (Standard Industrial Classification 2007 is used) and paint an even gloomy picture of the trajectory of construction jobs than did the previous series (see graph). At peak in September 2008 the statisticians now reckon there were 2,364,000…
The big question after today’s release of the Halifax house price index is whether the market is heading for a protracted decline or whether prices will stabilise and hold or continue to creep up from the trough of a year or so ago. It must be said that today’s figures, which show the third in a straight set of monthly declines, fit the pattern expected given the recent movement in what might be regarded as leading indicators for house prices….
I had hoped to bring you news and a view on the latest jobs figures for construction, but a technical glitch (no more detail available from the press officer I quizzed) meant we will have to wait a further month before the data on construction jobs to March are released. So as I had set aside some time to discuss the latest employment figures, what do we think of the broad numbers? I was a bit disappointed to see the…
As the real business of governing the UK begins to wind up again, the latest employment figures will do little to cheer the incoming government as it prepares to put chalk marks on where deep public sector cuts will be made. The overall figures showed the rise of unemployment continuing above the 2.5 million mark. But equally as worrying is the swelling number of part-time workers that is hiding a bubble of underemployment. Over the first quarter of this year…
The latest employment data will provide economists, politicians and strategists with plenty to chew on. The headline figure for unemployment jumped by 43,000 to top 2.5 million for the first time since 1996, the number of people in employment fell by 89,000 and the number wanting a job rose again. But there are certainly positive signs. The claimant count is down by 32,900 and the actual number of hours worked is on the rise. And one figure that probably won’t…
As the Chancellor Alistair Darling puts his final touches to the Budget he will be relieved by the recent spate of comforting data. Last Wednesday we had employment statistics showing that the unemployment was falling. On Thursday the figures on public finances were far healthier than expected, with the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimating that the level of borrowing for the financial year will come in £12 billion lower than forecast in the last Pre-Budget Report. Today we had the inflation…
Construction has now lost 213,000 jobs since the recession started to kick in the autumn of 2008, according to the latest figures. That is about 10% of the workforce. That sounds like a lot and it is. But given the severity of the fall in construction workload to date it is less than you might have imagined. So far we have seen construction output fall by more than 13.4% since the peak at the second quarter of 2008. Meanwhile the…
How should we read yesterday’s Rightmove figures showing the slowest ever March pick up in asking prices? They appear to be consistent with much of what else we are seeing in the market – a growing body of evidence that the recent bounce back in the housing market is faltering (see previous blog). The key factor slowing the rise in asking prices (see graph) Rightmove isolated was a rise in properties coming onto the market – up 34% on the…
For the optimists in the construction industry there is much hope to be gleaned from the latest employment figures. Equally for the pessimists there is plenty within the numbers to fret about. So what should we make of the latest batch of labour market numbers that, among other things, show that 163,000 redundacies were recorded in construction in 2009?