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Tag: statistics

Why brick data are still useful in tracking house building – if less so than in the past

Why brick data are still useful in tracking house building – if less so than in the past

The latest Building materials and components statistics were released by the business department BIS today. So I thought it worth having a wee peek at how facing brick deliveries have been going, given the general fuss about house building. I tweeted a few graphs earlier to show how brick deliveries had changed, which as I suggested provides a hint at changes in house-building activity. But it seems wise to add a few words of caution, since, as with all data,…

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Sustained output growth is just the start of a long recovery for construction

Sustained output growth is just the start of a long recovery for construction

The latest Markit/CIPS survey of construction activity came out yesterday grabbing big headlines and very possibly spectacularly misinforming the general public. The most common interpretation seems to be: “Construction grows at fastest rate for six years.” This is not surprising because it was what the Markit release actually said. I’m not saying this is bonkers, but it would surprise quite a few people if the official construction output figures record the fastest growth in six years in either the third…

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Strengthening data push construction forecasters towards greater optimism

Strengthening data push construction forecasters towards greater optimism

Construction industry forecasters have been busily upgrading their forecasts in the light of a turnaround in industry fortunes since Spring. Despite all raising their expectations for the future path of construction, at first glance the forecasts from Construction Products Association, Experian and Hewes appear to be telling very different stories. That certainly seems to be the take-away message from the graph. In some ways they are telling different tales, but in reality there’s more similarity than meets the eye. One…

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Why averages are not what they used to be

Why averages are not what they used to be

I had a conversation this morning with Jules Birch about the irritating and downright misleading way statistics are often used. This misuse may be intended or accidental, but the net result is the same. People are fed a distorted picture of reality which influences their view of the world. More worryingly, the misleading meanings ascribed to these statistics are repeated as facts, because they appear to be supported by hard numbers. The world becomes more ignorant and more adamant about…

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Searching for a Higgs Boson to explain the unsolved problems of the housing market

Searching for a Higgs Boson to explain the unsolved problems of the housing market

Over the past few months, particularly the past few days, I have bathed in data, ideas, business models, policies and blue sky thinking on how we can deliver more housing in the UK. This was the central theme running through yesterday’s Housing Market Intelligence conference. It was the broad thread that tied together the expert analyses in the associated Housing Market Intelligence report, which I edit. It was also the basic question that underpinned an Institute of Economic Development London…

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On averages, inequality, energy prices, global warming and the paradox of policy

On averages, inequality, energy prices, global warming and the paradox of policy

In January 2009 Sir Mervyn King, former Governor of the Bank of England, made a speech at a CBI dinner in Nottingham in which he discussed “the paradox of policy”. This speech was delivered at a time of was frenzied speculation and high anxiety over how policy makers were responding to the global financial crisis. He said: “This is the paradox of policy at present – almost any policy measure that is desirable now appears diametrically opposite to the direction…

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Government survey suggests construction firms in England are doing much better, are they?

Government survey suggests construction firms in England are doing much better, are they?

The latest quarterly English Business Survey produced by the business department BIS adds further weight to the notion that the construction market is improving. The survey uses a weighed balance and showed 30% more construction firms saying workload picked up than saying workload shrank between the first and second quarters of this year. Given that about a third saw workload stand still that is an impressive majority. Other highlights include a 26% positive balance expecting to see workloads increase next…

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The official construction figures add to the growing case for cautious optimism

The official construction figures add to the growing case for cautious optimism

The latest construction output figures provide yet more reasons to suspect that the industry may be pulling itself out of its slough. This evidence is reinforced by the release of the newly-constituted new orders figures. The construction output data for July show the index of construction activity has risen to its highest level since last October. This measure, which is seasonally adjusted and deflated to account for price changes, stood in July at 95.5 against 100 in 2010. This may…

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Comparing the pattern of changes in construction jobs by region

Comparing the pattern of changes in construction jobs by region

The latest jobs figures provide yet more evidence that the collapse in construction may be slowing down. The number of construction workforce jobs on the ONS seasonally adjusted figures rose slightly and was roughly the same as in the same period a year ago. These workforce jobs figures broadly support the picture painted by the employment figures released a month ago. The workforce jobs data do however provide us with a view of what is happening at a regional level….

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Finding smiley faces in the wallpaper – a look at today’s house building data

Finding smiley faces in the wallpaper – a look at today’s house building data

What can be said of the latest (second quarter) house building statistics that we don’t already really know, or suspect we know? Probably not a lot. The chances are they tell us more about the things we are likely to forget or ignore. Let’s look at the statistics for house building in England. Starts were well up, a bumper 37% (not seasonally adjusted) comparing 2013Q2 with 2012Q2. But this is comparing a relatively event-free sun-baked quarter with a rain-sodden Jubilympics…

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