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Tag: recovery

Brighter outlook from forecasters, but severe risks remain

Brighter outlook from forecasters, but severe risks remain

The forecasts from Hewes & Associates and Leading Edge sit interestingly against the other winter forecasts for construction output released over the past couple of weeks. They seem to back up the mood among other forecasters that construction workload might not fall as much was feared in the middle of last year. But what is most notable about the various forecasts when we put them together (see graph) is the spread of central projections for the path of construction output….

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Mum: Are we out of recession yet?

Mum: Are we out of recession yet?

You could feel the uneasiness among economists yesterday when the release of official statistics showed that the UK had just scraped enough oomph together in the final quarter of last year to stage a lacklustre return to growth. Most economists had expected the no-growth bar to be cleared by some margin. Instead the preliminary estimate figure posted at 0.1% growth leaves open the possibility that further revisions could show the UK still in recession. Unlikely, but not an outlandish possibility. Even…

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Why the forecast of a shallower recession is bad news for contractors

Why the forecast of a shallower recession is bad news for contractors

The latest forecast from the Construction Products Association suggests that the drop in future workload will not be as large as the forecasters had previously thought. The graph opposite compares the past three Construction Products Association forecasts. It clearly shows that with each progressive quarterly forecast the expected hole in construction workload has shrunk. Fantastic news you might think. Well think again. If you’re a contractor this is probably bad news not good news. And here’s why.

Does the whole GDP debate really rest on dodgy construction output figures?

Does the whole GDP debate really rest on dodgy construction output figures?

It has long been said that construction is an important bellwether in determining the shape of the nation’s economic progress. Today the performance of construction, or rather revisions to its measured performance, seemingly determined how close the UK is to recovery. The upwardly revised construction data put the nation yet closer to its official exit from recession. Whether we are in or out of recession has huge political significance. But for me it is interesting to note just how much store is…

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Are we witnessing an upswing in construction output? In a word: No

Are we witnessing an upswing in construction output? In a word: No

So its official – the construction recession isn’t as bad as we thought. And the even better news is that the sharp fall in output at the start of this year wasn’t anywhere near as sharp as last quarter’s figures had suggested. That at least is how the national statisticians might have us see it. The official figures for construction workload show a jump of 2% between the second and third quarters of this year. Workloads were boosted, the figures…

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Homes sales continued to perk up in April, but it’s too early to call it a recovery

Homes sales continued to perk up in April, but it’s too early to call it a recovery

The official figures for property transactions will make comforting reading in April for those selling homes. They seem consistent with the prevailing view that the housing market, in terms of sales and not prices, is showing some signs of bouncing back up from the floor reached at the turn of the year. The latest stats show that in both March and April there were 58,000 deals. This compares with 41,000 in January and 43,000 in February.