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Tag: recession

Prepare for a double dip in construction growth – the implication of today’s GDP figures

Prepare for a double dip in construction growth – the implication of today’s GDP figures

The UK is coming out faster from recession than we thought. But the hole was deeper. That seems to be the message from the statisticians’ latest stab at the nation’s output. The increase in fourth quarter GPD was revised upward from 0.1% to 0.3%, which will cheer many not least the Chancellor. But it seems that new data seeping into the spreadsheets of statisticians at the ONS point to the hole we were in having been bigger, with earlier growth…

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Fewer redundancy in construction, but the future remains bleak on jobs

Fewer redundancy in construction, but the future remains bleak on jobs

For the optimists in the construction industry there is much hope to be gleaned from the latest employment figures. Equally for the pessimists there is plenty within the numbers to fret about. So what should we make of the latest batch of labour market numbers that, among other things, show that 163,000 redundacies were recorded in construction in 2009? 

Annual orders figures reveal extent of construction freefall – a £17 billion drop in two years

Annual orders figures reveal extent of construction freefall – a £17 billion drop in two years

The recession has ripped away from construction roughly £17 billion in annual new orders, despite £ billions more public sector sponsored work. That’s the clear message to me from the annual tot up of the new orders won by contractors released today. Forget the niceties of which sector is doing how well and you are faced with the grim picture of an industry in near freefall. In 2007 new orders in cash terms came to £50.6 billion. The figure for…

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Was it just the cold or is it a relapse?

Was it just the cold or is it a relapse?

There are plenty of people, “experts” indeed, who fully expect a double-dip recession for both the economy and, for that matter, house prices. For them the data emerging for January’s performance appears to be, albeit gently, vindicating their position. They will no doubt seize with alacrity the retail figures from the British Retail Consortium showing the worst January sales data for 15 years. Those who take a different perspective will write the slump in sales off to the coldest January…

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Will we see the return of mobile classrooms, or can construction firms find a better solution?

Will we see the return of mobile classrooms, or can construction firms find a better solution?

In a chat yesterday it was suggested I should make a note of the rapid increase in the number of babies being born and the implications for construction, or not as the case may be. This chimed with me, as I had recently been told that they will need two more classrooms at the primary school my son is at by the time my daughter attends. I noted also that the Daily Mail had screamed about it a few days…

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We’re still in recession says CIPS, despite official figures showing construction output growth

We’re still in recession says CIPS, despite official figures showing construction output growth

Here’s a question I ponder quite a bit. Why do the official figures show that construction grew in the second and third quarters of last year when to everyone else construction has remained mired in the slough of a nasty recession? Puzzling isn’t it. Even more puzzling that the estimates for construction’s contribution to the GDP data suggest the industry’s output was stable in the fourth quarter of 2009. What is even more puzzling for me is that the CIPS/Markit…

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Is an inaccurate measure of foreign workers messing up the construction data?

Is an inaccurate measure of foreign workers messing up the construction data?

Here’s a couple of graphs for stat-spotters I thought worth placing together. For some while there has been unease about both the workforce jobs figures and the repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) sector figures in the official construction output statistics. The two sets of data are linked and there’s been some concern that an under recording of foreign workers was impacting on the workforce jobs figures and in turn on the RMI data, as Labour Force Survey data is used in estimating…

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Brighter outlook from forecasters, but severe risks remain

Brighter outlook from forecasters, but severe risks remain

The forecasts from Hewes & Associates and Leading Edge sit interestingly against the other winter forecasts for construction output released over the past couple of weeks. They seem to back up the mood among other forecasters that construction workload might not fall as much was feared in the middle of last year. But what is most notable about the various forecasts when we put them together (see graph) is the spread of central projections for the path of construction output….

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Mum: Are we out of recession yet?

Mum: Are we out of recession yet?

You could feel the uneasiness among economists yesterday when the release of official statistics showed that the UK had just scraped enough oomph together in the final quarter of last year to stage a lacklustre return to growth. Most economists had expected the no-growth bar to be cleared by some margin. Instead the preliminary estimate figure posted at 0.1% growth leaves open the possibility that further revisions could show the UK still in recession. Unlikely, but not an outlandish possibility. Even…

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Why the forecast of a shallower recession is bad news for contractors

Why the forecast of a shallower recession is bad news for contractors

The latest forecast from the Construction Products Association suggests that the drop in future workload will not be as large as the forecasters had previously thought. The graph opposite compares the past three Construction Products Association forecasts. It clearly shows that with each progressive quarterly forecast the expected hole in construction workload has shrunk. Fantastic news you might think. Well think again. If you’re a contractor this is probably bad news not good news. And here’s why.