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Tag: public spending

A last hurrah for construction before the axe falls

A last hurrah for construction before the axe falls

If you didn’t know what was coming, you could read the latest set of figures for construction orders and output as very promising indeed, with contractors both winning more work and doing more work in recent months. In constant prices, output in the three months to May was as strong as in any quarter since the third quarter of 2008 – you remember the quarter in which Lehman Brothers collapsed and the world’s financial markets went into convulsions. Certainly, after…

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More than 300,000 construction jobs axed so far in this recession

More than 300,000 construction jobs axed so far in this recession

Construction lost 63,000 jobs in the first quarter of this year and has shed more than 300,000 since the recession bit hard after Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008. The latest employment figures are based on a slightly different assessment of the industry (Standard Industrial Classification 2007 is used) and paint an even gloomy picture of the trajectory of construction jobs than did the previous series (see graph). At peak in September 2008 the statisticians now reckon there were 2,364,000…

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Better than expected, but pre-Budget forecast will not spare construction’s pain

Better than expected, but pre-Budget forecast will not spare construction’s pain

There was a widespread view, stoked in part by the new incumbent at No 11 Downing Street, suggesting that the first output from the newly established Office for Budget Responsibility would most likely reveal the public sector debt to be far greater than we had been led to believe. Understandably this miffed the ex-Chancellor Alistair Darling who quite rightly was irritated at the suggestion he was a smoke and mirrors merchant. Well, now it would seem that if he had been…

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What to make of the conflicting messages from the latest house prices surveys

What to make of the conflicting messages from the latest house prices surveys

As last week closed the Halifax index showed the average price of a home (seasonally adjusted) falling for the second month in a row. This contrasts starkly with the Nationwide data which earlier last week was showing a continuation of a minor surge in prices. Meanwhile the Hometrack survey released last Monday suggests that house price inflation in flagging as activity in the market slows. It is hard to know exactly what to make of these conflicting accounts and to…

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Buyers’ index once again suggests growth in construction, but for how long?

Buyers’ index once again suggests growth in construction, but for how long?

The latest construction index from the buyers’ body CIPS shows growth in construction in May sped up slightly. The overall activity index rose from 58.2 to 58.5. That suggests a respectable amount of growth (see graph) given that anything above 50 is growth. However while the figures are positive now there appears to be little appetite to consume hopes that growth will continue. As the chief executive officer of CIPS, David Noble, says: “Civil engineering is a clear case in…

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Buyers’ index suggests rapid growth in construction, how ironic

Buyers’ index suggests rapid growth in construction, how ironic

How ironic that just as the construction industry is sucking in its tummy and preparing for savage cuts the latest survey by the buyers’ body CIPS shows some of the strongest growth experienced over the past decade. As can be seen from graph on the right the current level of the index suggests a growth rate that would have been well received at most times in the period from 2000 to the credit crunch. The survey suggests that activity in the…

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We’re back to double-digit growth in house prices, oh dear

We’re back to double-digit growth in house prices, oh dear

House prices are booming again, crack open the champagne! Well maybe not. If I was a house builder reading the latest survey from the Nationwide building society showing a double-digit rise in prices over the past year (see graph) I would be worried. Looking at my short-term prospects, naturally I would be chirpy about the larger profit margin I could reasonably expect on my future sales. Naturally I would be upbeat about how price competitive I can now be against…

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Latest construction forecasts suggest there is more to fear than hope for

Latest construction forecasts suggest there is more to fear than hope for

The latest round of forecasting by construction experts paints a picture little changed from three months ago with little hope of significant growth, much uncertainty and the risks to growth heavily weighted on the down side. The general pattern they expect can be seen from the graph (right). It shows that after the biggest recorded annual fall since comparable records began in 1955 the forecasters expect a continued slide this year. There is some variation in views on this, with…

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It’s a double-dip recession for construction, if the statisticians’ first stab at growth is right

It’s a double-dip recession for construction, if the statisticians’ first stab at growth is right

Construction has fallen into a double-dip recession – that is if the preliminary estimates by the statisticians putting together the first quarter 2010 gross domestic product figures are to be believed. The preliminary GDP figures put growth at a pallid 0.2% for the economy as a whole. This low level of growth will be a huge worry for construction if the figure is not revised upward in later estimates. In fairness the chances of a revision upward in this data…

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Good news in the employment figures, but the future for construction jobs remains uncertain

Good news in the employment figures, but the future for construction jobs remains uncertain

The latest employment data will provide economists, politicians and strategists with plenty to chew on. The headline figure for unemployment jumped by 43,000 to top 2.5 million for the first time since 1996, the number of people in employment fell by 89,000 and the number wanting a job rose again. But there are certainly positive signs. The claimant count is down by 32,900 and the actual number of hours worked is on the rise. And one figure that probably won’t…

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