Today’s GDP figures will come as unwelcome news to the Government. The data suggest the UK again is in a technical recession, falling by an unexpected 0.2% in the first quarter. A large factor in this decline in growth was down to construction. The GDP data for construction suggest the industry saw a 3% decline in the first quarter of this year. This follows a fall of 0.2% in the final quarter of last year and technically puts construction into…
Tomorrow we get the first hint of how construction might perform this year when the Gross Domestic Product preliminary estimate figures for the first quarter are released. Looking at the initial data on construction output for this year, I suggest everyone should be prepared for a nasty number to emerge within the data for construction’s contribution. But while I think it likely, that doesn’t mean it will. There are things we don’t know. What will early returns for March show?…
I will be shocked if construction is not in a technical recession when the first quarter figures are published in a month’s time. That is providing the official construction output data for Great Britain released today is not fantastically revised. What is more we should expect to see bigger contractors squealing the most, as it is the markets they dominate that seem to be under most pressure. I have done a few back-of-an-envelope calculations and (unless I am very much out of…
For those who like their news good, the story in the latest construction industry forecasts is that the mood is less pessimistic than it was three months ago. The two forecasts out so far in this spring round – Experian and Hewes & Associates – both tweaked their figures upwards for output over the next three years. Looking at this year, Experian revised its forecast from -5.6% to -4.4%, while Hewes saw a case to reduce the fall from -6.5%…
The Government is looking hard at injecting private capital into supporting the under–strain roads network. That certainly was one of the key messages that came out of Prime Minister David Cameron’s speech at the Institution of Civil Engineers today. This and the tone of the speech tell us a few things about current Government thinking and also raise speculation about other aspects of its approach. Firstly, the green agenda is shifting. Until recently the preferred politics had been to lean…
The latest national jobs figures may well provide some comfort for those in construction as they show that the level of employment held up last year. The number of jobs stood at 2,052,000 on the workforce jobs by industry count. And employment on the Labour Force Survey count stood at 2,165,000. Given the margins of error in the surveys the broad picture, as we see from graph 1, is of a flat jobs market in construction for the best part of…
The latest construction output figures add further weight to fears that the industry is heading into recession. At first glance the figures may seem reasonably positive. The volume of work carried out in the three months to January was a shade (0.7%) up on last year. This seems to suggest that construction is holding its own in tough circumstances. Looked at on an annualised basis construction has been broadly flat since May last year, as we can see from the…
When construction indicators point in different directions what are we to make of it? The February Markit/CIPS purchasing managers’ index released today is very bullish, suggesting the best growth for 14 months and the best month for new business for 21 months. Meanwhile, the official ONS construction new orders figures for the final quarter of last year were very downbeat. They showed a gloomier picture, with orders down on the previous quarter by 2.5%, down 15.4% on a year earlier….
The Construction Products Association has called on the Chancellor to pave the way so that quantitative easing can be exploited to fund house building. And there seems to be growing backing within the construction sector and without for using the quantitative easing machine as means to increase the number of homes being built.
I have noted from conversations I have had recently a more confident air about the future within construction this side of the New Year. And the latest Markit/CIPS survey seems to add to this anecdotal evidence with its finding that confidence in the sector in January improved “to the second-strongest degree in the survey history to reach the highest since May 2011”. I’m not sure what that actually means in numbers but it sounds like a lot of improvement.