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Tag: house prices

Is the housing market on the turn again?

Is the housing market on the turn again?

Today’s release by the surveyors’ body RICS of its latest housing market survey provides a little bit of support to both sides of the will-they-won’t-they debate on house price rises. Looked at nationally, the broad measures of estate agents experiences and expectations of house prices remain positive. A majority of 17% saw prices rise in February and a majority of 7% expect prices to continue rising. This will pep up the spirits of those keen to see evidence that prices…

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Was it just the cold or is it a relapse?

Was it just the cold or is it a relapse?

There are plenty of people, “experts” indeed, who fully expect a double-dip recession for both the economy and, for that matter, house prices. For them the data emerging for January’s performance appears to be, albeit gently, vindicating their position. They will no doubt seize with alacrity the retail figures from the British Retail Consortium showing the worst January sales data for 15 years. Those who take a different perspective will write the slump in sales off to the coldest January…

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Bulls in the housing futures market turn sheepish

Bulls in the housing futures market turn sheepish

There has been a sharp change of mood among the traders of housing futures who punt large sums on the level of house prices at given years ahead. Traders had turned bullish  last autumn and even at the end of the year the Tradition Future HPI was showing a projected one-year out rise of 5% in house prices. That bullish sentiment turned distinctly sheepish by the end of last month and now the market has settled on a 1% rise one year…

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God damn it, don’t you just feel richer…

God damn it, don’t you just feel richer…

When I see the house price indexes rising I can’t stop myself. I have to do a sum that estimates how much richer we are as a nation. Here’s how I do it. I head straight for the Blue Book (a set of the nation’s annual accounts, if you like) and flick (metaphorically, as I use the pdf version) to the balance sheet numbers. That is table 10.2 in the current edition to be precise. It tells me that the…

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Are UK houses really worth 6% more than a year ago?

Are UK houses really worth 6% more than a year ago?

The final Halifax index for 2009 has been released and it settles on a December 2009 average house price 5.6% above that of December 2008. This is roughly in line with the figures from Nationwide which show a 5.9% rise. It is easy from this to draw the conclusion that on average your house is worth about 6% more than a year ago. That would be an ill-advised assumption at best and foolish at worst.

Pundits on balance point to flat house prices in 2010

Pundits on balance point to flat house prices in 2010

It’s the time of the year for reflections, resolutions and prognostications. And what can be more fun than guessing the likely path of house prices? Well I can think of a few things. And I’m also left wondering why anyone would wish to state a house price forecast publicly and put their reputations on the line. Predicting house prices currently is a bit like trying to pin a tail on a bucking donkey while blindfolded and in front of a sneering audience….

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Housing recovery is resting on happier family homes market

Housing recovery is resting on happier family homes market

The latest swathe of housing data continues to suggest a pick up both in prices and activity and the RICS November house price survey, released today, adds further weight to the case for a housing recovery. Its measures for sales, expected sales, new inquiries, new instructions, prices and expected prices are all in soundly positive territory, although the rate of improvement appears to have slackened. This survey follows the release of a stack of housing indices pointing upward on prices….

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The cruelty of breeding force-fed first-time buyers

The cruelty of breeding force-fed first-time buyers

Here’s a question that goes right to the heart of current housing policy: Should we be using incentives as readily as we are to encourage first-time buyers onto the property ladder? However iconoclastic or contrary this question may seem, it needs to be asked. There is so much at stake.

New Year stamp duty switchback will have little impact, says RICS

New Year stamp duty switchback will have little impact, says RICS

For those interested in what will happen when the stamp duty holiday comes to an end on December 31, the surveyors’ body RICS has done a little bit of research among its members. Basically, the results seem to suggest that by and large the effect on property transactions will be muted and will not cause a swell in the number of people looking to buy or sell their homes in the run up to 2010. And when the tax threshold…

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Forecasters call the bottom of the house price slump

Forecasters call the bottom of the house price slump

The increasing stretch of stable house prices is leading forecasters to call the bottom of the slump. The Nationwide late last month tentatively said it may be time to think the unthinkable that house prices may exit 2009 higher than they entered it. Last week much was made of the RICS saying it expected house prices to be higher at the end of 2009 than at the beginning. Wisely, there were heavy caveats and warnings over the fragility of the…

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