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Tag: forecasts

This decade will be the first in more than a century when Britain’s homes become more crowded

This decade will be the first in more than a century when Britain’s homes become more crowded

Prepare for a massive shift in housing standards over the coming decade. That’s what I see when I read the latest UK population estimates released today. In fairness this story line is much the same as when the 2008-based estimates were released, except these figures show a bigger population growth (at 67.2 million in 2020 that’s an extra 700,000) and we now expect far fewer homes to be built over the coming decade than we might have hoped for a couple…

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Forecasters shade down expectations for construction on private sector growth fears

Forecasters shade down expectations for construction on private sector growth fears

The prospects for construction are worsening, that’s the picture painted by the latest set of main industry forecasts. Even the least pessimistic of the forecasts, from Leading Edge, at best suggests the industry now looks to be facing two years of a second dip into recession. Hewes, which remains the most pessimistic of the forecasters, finds little reason to suggest that the industry will still be plunging in 2013, while the Construction Products Association forecasters reckon the industry will not…

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Experian shades up its construction forecast as public investment holds up better than expected

Experian shades up its construction forecast as public investment holds up better than expected

I was wrong. Not all the construction forecasts are being revised down this time around. Experian has slightly lifted its expectations for construction growth for this year and next compared with its summer forecast. In the summer it was looking at a fall of 2.6% and 3.5% for this year and next, those expectations are now smaller falls of 2.1% and 3.3%. This is despite a lower forecast for GDP growth. Experian had revised its summer forecast quite a bit. And…

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First of autumn forecasts downgrades construction prospects

First of autumn forecasts downgrades construction prospects

Be prepared for a slower recovery than we were expecting – that’s that message from the first of autumn construction forecasts to emerge. Leading Edge had already penned in a double-dip recession for construction when it last produced a forecast in March, but now it expects the fall to be deeper and the recovery to be slower.

Lacklustre construction output figures point to decline

Lacklustre construction output figures point to decline

The latest GB construction output figures follow the earlier estimate made for the UK GDP series, which put growth in the second quarter at 0.5%. This was a bit lacklustre. The figures were particularly disappointing after the ONS put out a release which in error put the growth rate at 2.3%. This erroneous figure pointed to an upward revision of 0.1% to be added to GDP when it is next revised. This hope has now been dashed and will not…

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Forecasters’ views vary on depth and length of construction’s second drop into recession

Forecasters’ views vary on depth and length of construction’s second drop into recession

Hewes & Associates has once again come out with a sobering forecast for the prospects of construction that suggests a deepening recession with no end in sight within its three-year range. The graph shows how pessimistic the Hewes forecast is when compared with those of the Construction Products Association and Experian. Underlying this big difference in views between the forecasters is the view on the timing and speed at which the private sector will recover and pull construction back into…

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Mood grows gloomier among construction industry forecasters

Mood grows gloomier among construction industry forecasters

The mood among the construction industry forecasters appears to be getting gloomier. Rather than a quick dip back into recession, in the opinion of forecasters the construction industry looks to be facing a more protracted swim through recessionary waters before reaching firm ground and growth again. Experian downgraded its expectations for growth fairly markedly from its spring to summer forecast. And this follows the Construction Products Association shading down its forecast earlier this month. Both seem to be far less…

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Jobs and pay data do little to perk up waning hopes for growth

Jobs and pay data do little to perk up waning hopes for growth

The latest jobs and pay data released by the Office for National Statistics today provide little by way of comfort about the economy or, more specifically, for those in the construction industry. There was an improvement in the numbers employed with 50,000 more in employment over the past three months to May and 26,000 fewer were counted as unemployed. But we have seen a continued rise in the claimant count. And annual pay rose at an annual rate of just 2.3%,…

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Construction output: So far it’s better than last year, but can that last?

Construction output: So far it’s better than last year, but can that last?

The construction firms may be suffering and may be shedding jobs, but the bald statistics so far for this year suggest that the industry is faring better than the gloomy news might have some believe. The latest construction output figures show that in pure cash terms the industry pocketed about £1.24 billion more in the first five months of this year than in the same period in 2010. And 2010 proved a pretty good year in the end, with output…

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Forecasters shade up their estimates for construction output

Forecasters shade up their estimates for construction output

The latest forecasts have been released for construction and, while it may not look like it, they are a shade more optimistic than they were at the tail end of last year. That said the picture remains broadly the same, with the industry heading into a second dip of recession before increased buoyancy in the private sector replaces falling public sector funding and drags construction back into growth.