The latest Experian forecast on the face of it paints a picture of a rockier road for construction over the coming few years compared with its previous forecast. But on balance it is a slightly more optimistic picture of the path ahead for construction than is suggested by other forecast released recently. The impact of the economic stimulus on construction was perhaps stronger and more immediate than many might have expected and hence the withdrawal of the stimulus and the…
Construction output slumped back into decline in the final quarter of 2009, after a supposed rise out of recession in summer. That is the headline story from today’s release of the construction output figures. But dig a bit deeper and we see some unsettling implications in the numbers.
Here’s a couple of graphs for stat-spotters I thought worth placing together. For some while there has been unease about both the workforce jobs figures and the repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) sector figures in the official construction output statistics. The two sets of data are linked and there’s been some concern that an under recording of foreign workers was impacting on the workforce jobs figures and in turn on the RMI data, as Labour Force Survey data is used in estimating…
The RICS construction survey for the third quarter of 2009 found confidence over increased workloads returning to the industry for the first time since 2008 Q1. This was despite an overall fall in workload across the industry as a whole and the fact that things would have been worse but for a positive showing from publicly financed construction. So are the surveyors right and we are poised to rebound from recession over the coming year?
The latest round of trade survey data points to an ugly acceleration in the rate of collapse of workloads. Persistent sightings of green shoots over the late spring and summer now look to have been little more than a mirage.
My good friend Martin Hewes has just past me some details of the latest Hewes & Associates forecast for new work construction output. It will not make for comfortable reading if you happen to be trading heavily in Yorkshire & Humberside.
The latest forecast from Hewes & Associates is not one that will fill the faint hearted with comfort as they return to work from their Easter break. Hewes’s rather bleak take on the prospects for UK construction suggests that the industry is heading for a fairly prolonged recession taking output in 2010 back to the levels seen in 2003.