The latest forecasts have been released for construction and, while it may not look like it, they are a shade more optimistic than they were at the tail end of last year. That said the picture remains broadly the same, with the industry heading into a second dip of recession before increased buoyancy in the private sector replaces falling public sector funding and drags construction back into growth.
The latest pan-industry construction trade survey put together by the Construction Product Association paints a bleak picture for the months ahead, as falling workload and prices combine with cost inflation to squeeze firms’ already pressured profits. How ironic that seems after the industry enjoyed one of its best ever years of growth in 2010. But the trade survey suggests that profit margins have been under significant pressure since the credit crunch in the autumn of 2007. And it would seem…
The latest Experian forecast on the face of it paints a picture of a rockier road for construction over the coming few years compared with its previous forecast. But on balance it is a slightly more optimistic picture of the path ahead for construction than is suggested by other forecast released recently. The impact of the economic stimulus on construction was perhaps stronger and more immediate than many might have expected and hence the withdrawal of the stimulus and the…
The latest forecast for construction growth to emerge from the Construction Products Association suggests that construction will not see growth of any significance for at least the next two years. However, while the central projection is for a distinct double-dip in workload, even the most pessimistic scenario presented by the forecasters does not envisage a drop in construction much beyond 5%. That would be painful but far from as dramatic as the 17% collapse from the peak quarter at the start of 2008…
The latest combined construction trade survey compiled by the Construction Products Association has thrown up an unexpected and confusing result showing contractors working less in the second quarter of the year. This is significantly at odds with the official data suggests. The result of the contractor survey shows 20% more firms did less work than did more in the second quarter. The ONS construction figures point to a rise of more than 6% in output in that period. This begs…
The latest round of forecasting by construction experts paints a picture little changed from three months ago with little hope of significant growth, much uncertainty and the risks to growth heavily weighted on the down side. The general pattern they expect can be seen from the graph (right). It shows that after the biggest recorded annual fall since comparable records began in 1955 the forecasters expect a continued slide this year. There is some variation in views on this, with…
The latest Experian forecast is out today and it paints a broadly similar, albeit slightly more optimistic, picture to that of the recently released forecast from the Construction Products Association. The main point of departure is on the views towards housing. Here the Experian forecasters are more bullish, if you can say that about a market that even by 2012 is expected to be almost 30% smaller than it was before the credit crunch. Experian’s expectation of a faster improvement…
The latest forecast from the Construction Products Association suggests that the drop in future workload will not be as large as the forecasters had previously thought. The graph opposite compares the past three Construction Products Association forecasts. It clearly shows that with each progressive quarterly forecast the expected hole in construction workload has shrunk. Fantastic news you might think. Well think again. If you’re a contractor this is probably bad news not good news. And here’s why.
The latest round of trade survey data points to an ugly acceleration in the rate of collapse of workloads. Persistent sightings of green shoots over the late spring and summer now look to have been little more than a mirage.
For those with an optimistic nature there was some good news to be seen in the latest set of industry forecasts with both the Construction Products Association and Hewes trimming how much they feel output in the industry will fall. Indeed the three forecasts came closer together in this round of forecasting as Experian took a marginally dimmer view of 2009. This convergence hints at there being more certainty about the near term direction of construction than there was. That…