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Tag: construction output

Joy deferred as CIPS shows construction activity grows for first time in two years

Joy deferred as CIPS shows construction activity grows for first time in two years

So the construction activity indicator produced by the buyers’ body CIPS finally points to growth after two years of measuring falling workloads. But this seemingly uplifting moment appears to have brought little joy. The March figure popped its head above the 50 no-change mark on the back of rising activity in the housing and commercial sectors. But the survey also found more and deeper job cuts within the industry and there was a drop in the confidence within firms over…

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Budget figures confirm the urgent need for new sources of investment in construction

Budget figures confirm the urgent need for new sources of investment in construction

As if in compensation for all the anticipation before and excitement during the Budget announcement, we are left with the dull thud back to reality afterwards. Certainly, for construction the Budget itself changed little of substance. Alright the first-time buyer stamp duty holiday was an eye-catching cheeky move. But we all know its greatest impact will be in 20 months time when we will see a flurry of activity by those who don’t want to miss out on potentially saving…

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Half a million construction jobs to go – it looks like a dead cert

Half a million construction jobs to go – it looks like a dead cert

Construction has now lost 213,000 jobs since the recession started to kick in the autumn of 2008, according to the latest figures. That is about 10% of the workforce. That sounds like a lot and it is. But given the severity of the fall in construction workload to date it is less than you might have imagined. So far we have seen construction output fall by more than 13.4% since the peak at the second quarter of 2008. Meanwhile the…

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Growth eludes construction as economy grows –that’s how CIPS sees it

Growth eludes construction as economy grows –that’s how CIPS sees it

The latest set of figures from the buyers’ body CIPS shows that construction remains mired in recession and the general pattern painted by the numbers provides little scope for optimism. The level of incoming orders fell for the third month in a row, says the report. And this will be from a low base. It all rather poses the question: where to from here? It is perhaps ironic, given the figures, that the survey shows expectations for activity over the next…

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Prepare for a double dip in construction growth – the implication of today’s GDP figures

Prepare for a double dip in construction growth – the implication of today’s GDP figures

The UK is coming out faster from recession than we thought. But the hole was deeper. That seems to be the message from the statisticians’ latest stab at the nation’s output. The increase in fourth quarter GPD was revised upward from 0.1% to 0.3%, which will cheer many not least the Chancellor. But it seems that new data seeping into the spreadsheets of statisticians at the ONS point to the hole we were in having been bigger, with earlier growth…

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We’re still in recession says CIPS, despite official figures showing construction output growth

We’re still in recession says CIPS, despite official figures showing construction output growth

Here’s a question I ponder quite a bit. Why do the official figures show that construction grew in the second and third quarters of last year when to everyone else construction has remained mired in the slough of a nasty recession? Puzzling isn’t it. Even more puzzling that the estimates for construction’s contribution to the GDP data suggest the industry’s output was stable in the fourth quarter of 2009. What is even more puzzling for me is that the CIPS/Markit…

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Brighter outlook from forecasters, but severe risks remain

Brighter outlook from forecasters, but severe risks remain

The forecasts from Hewes & Associates and Leading Edge sit interestingly against the other winter forecasts for construction output released over the past couple of weeks. They seem to back up the mood among other forecasters that construction workload might not fall as much was feared in the middle of last year. But what is most notable about the various forecasts when we put them together (see graph) is the spread of central projections for the path of construction output….

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We’ll be getting off relatively lightly if the construction workforce drops by 400,000

We’ll be getting off relatively lightly if the construction workforce drops by 400,000

The latest forecast from the Construction Skills Network (CSN) suggests that the current recession in construction will have led to a drop of about 400,000 in the number employed by the industry once job shedding ends in early 2011. This would mean a drop of about 15% in the workforce. That appears at first sight pretty savage. But set against the previous recession this would be getting off relatively lightly, with a shorter and less severe period of job cutting.

Mum: Are we out of recession yet?

Mum: Are we out of recession yet?

You could feel the uneasiness among economists yesterday when the release of official statistics showed that the UK had just scraped enough oomph together in the final quarter of last year to stage a lacklustre return to growth. Most economists had expected the no-growth bar to be cleared by some margin. Instead the preliminary estimate figure posted at 0.1% growth leaves open the possibility that further revisions could show the UK still in recession. Unlikely, but not an outlandish possibility. Even…

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