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Tag: Bank of England

Some comfort for house builders as inflation fears ease

Some comfort for house builders as inflation fears ease

The latest set of inflation figures showing a fall in the headline rate of the CPI index will provide a good degree of comfort to the interest rate setters at the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. And in turn this should provide some relief to those house builders who harbour fears about a rise in interest rates. At 3.4% the headline rate remains well above the 2% target and as such remains unsettling for those who fear that this…

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What to make of the conflicting messages from the latest house prices surveys

What to make of the conflicting messages from the latest house prices surveys

As last week closed the Halifax index showed the average price of a home (seasonally adjusted) falling for the second month in a row. This contrasts starkly with the Nationwide data which earlier last week was showing a continuation of a minor surge in prices. Meanwhile the Hometrack survey released last Monday suggests that house price inflation in flagging as activity in the market slows. It is hard to know exactly what to make of these conflicting accounts and to…

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The problem with surprises on inflation

The problem with surprises on inflation

Could it be that we are about to witness the beginnings of widening concerns over rising inflation? The Consumer Prices Index “surprise” jump to 3.7% yesterday will certainly increase rumblings in the markets and elsewhere. Although for the time being I suspect  attention will be more focused on June 22 and George Osborne’s first budget, which could after all produce some pretty hefty downward pressure on inflation, if the output from the rumour mill has any value. However, if inflation does…

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Bank figures provide more jitters for the housing market

Bank figures provide more jitters for the housing market

The latest data on mortage lending from the Bank of England will do little to steady the nerves of those in the house building world. The figures show the number of approvals for house purchases on a seasonally adjusted basis has taken a dip in the first quarter of this year. The number of mortgages for the first quarter of this year dropped 16% on the final quarter of 2009, although the figure was up 17% on a year ago…

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More home sellers, fewer home letters – a housing market in flux

More home sellers, fewer home letters – a housing market in flux

How should we read yesterday’s Rightmove figures showing the slowest ever March pick up in asking prices? They appear to be consistent with much of what else we are seeing in the market – a growing body of evidence that the recent bounce back in the housing market is faltering (see previous blog). The key factor slowing the rise in asking prices (see graph) Rightmove isolated was a rise in properties coming onto the market – up 34% on the…

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Prepare for a double dip in construction growth – the implication of today’s GDP figures

Prepare for a double dip in construction growth – the implication of today’s GDP figures

The UK is coming out faster from recession than we thought. But the hole was deeper. That seems to be the message from the statisticians’ latest stab at the nation’s output. The increase in fourth quarter GPD was revised upward from 0.1% to 0.3%, which will cheer many not least the Chancellor. But it seems that new data seeping into the spreadsheets of statisticians at the ONS point to the hole we were in having been bigger, with earlier growth…

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Was it just the cold or is it a relapse?

Was it just the cold or is it a relapse?

There are plenty of people, “experts” indeed, who fully expect a double-dip recession for both the economy and, for that matter, house prices. For them the data emerging for January’s performance appears to be, albeit gently, vindicating their position. They will no doubt seize with alacrity the retail figures from the British Retail Consortium showing the worst January sales data for 15 years. Those who take a different perspective will write the slump in sales off to the coldest January…

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Reasons to be careful – December’s higher than expected inflation

Reasons to be careful – December’s higher than expected inflation

Consumer Price Inflation at 2.9% in December and up from 1.9% a month earlier… mmm… that’s not what the experts expected. Not by a long way. This morning’s story from Reuters published ahead of the inflation figures had its poll of experts plumping for inflation at 2.6%. No doubt there will be a lot of post-announcement rationalisation about the figures from economist, but in truth the City and economists at large have consistently underplayed the strength of inflation in their…

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Pundits on balance point to flat house prices in 2010

Pundits on balance point to flat house prices in 2010

It’s the time of the year for reflections, resolutions and prognostications. And what can be more fun than guessing the likely path of house prices? Well I can think of a few things. And I’m also left wondering why anyone would wish to state a house price forecast publicly and put their reputations on the line. Predicting house prices currently is a bit like trying to pin a tail on a bucking donkey while blindfolded and in front of a sneering audience….

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Are expectations of inflation too low?

Are expectations of inflation too low?

Inflation is now on the way up. That was to be expected. As Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, keeps reminding us, we should expect inflation to be very volatile for some while. But, is it me or do the forecasts for inflation reaching a mini-peak at about 3% in the early part of next year seem to be a little timid? The reason I am a bit unsettled is that if expectations for inflation prove to be…

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