Why the forecast of a shallower recession is bad news for contractors

Why the forecast of a shallower recession is bad news for contractors

The latest forecast from the Construction Products Association suggests that the drop in future workload will not be as large as the forecasters had previously thought. The graph opposite compares the past three Construction Products Association forecasts. It clearly shows that with each progressive quarterly forecast the expected hole in construction workload has shrunk. Fantastic news you might think. Well think again. If you’re a contractor this is probably bad news not good news. And here’s why.

Are UK houses really worth 6% more than a year ago?

Are UK houses really worth 6% more than a year ago?

The final Halifax index for 2009 has been released and it settles on a December 2009 average house price 5.6% above that of December 2008. This is roughly in line with the figures from Nationwide which show a 5.9% rise. It is easy from this to draw the conclusion that on average your house is worth about 6% more than a year ago. That would be an ill-advised assumption at best and foolish at worst.

Workload drops as the snow falls

Workload drops as the snow falls

When we suffered a cold snap back in February last year I looked at the impact of the great freeze of 1962/63 on construction output. In a word it was huge. So, as I walked into work this morning chipper as a child as I trudge though inches of snow and took in the Christmas card scene, I wondered what was the effect of the cold snap in February on the figures and what might we expect the impact of…

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CIPS figures show construction activity in 2009 ending with a whimper

CIPS figures show construction activity in 2009 ending with a whimper

The buyers’ body CIPS has released its first construction statistics of the New Year and they show the industry continuing to decline in December. The construction index finished the year on 47.1, below the 50 no-change mark for the 22nd consecutive month. But there was some good news. The housing index remained positive for the fourth month running and growth appears to be strengthening. Meanwhile optimism among purchasing managers about future activity rose slightly. But as the graph shows the…

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Pundits on balance point to flat house prices in 2010

Pundits on balance point to flat house prices in 2010

It’s the time of the year for reflections, resolutions and prognostications. And what can be more fun than guessing the likely path of house prices? Well I can think of a few things. And I’m also left wondering why anyone would wish to state a house price forecast publicly and put their reputations on the line. Predicting house prices currently is a bit like trying to pin a tail on a bucking donkey while blindfolded and in front of a sneering audience….

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Does the whole GDP debate really rest on dodgy construction output figures?

Does the whole GDP debate really rest on dodgy construction output figures?

It has long been said that construction is an important bellwether in determining the shape of the nation’s economic progress. Today the performance of construction, or rather revisions to its measured performance, seemingly determined how close the UK is to recovery. The upwardly revised construction data put the nation yet closer to its official exit from recession. Whether we are in or out of recession has huge political significance. But for me it is interesting to note just how much store is…

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Residential planning activity bounces back

Residential planning activity bounces back

The latest Government planning data on the face of it supports the view that there has been a bounce in activity within the house building sector. The topline data, released today, for residential planning decision show a fall in the September quarter compared with both the previous quarter and on the same quarter last year.

Grim outlook for jobs in UK construction

Grim outlook for jobs in UK construction

The official figures show construction lost 67,000 jobs in the third quarter of this year. This is more than 1,000 jobs each working day and half the jobs lost to the UK economy over that period. So while there may be suggestions of more stability in the wider economy, construction is clearly still mired in a growing recession.

Housing recovery is resting on happier family homes market

Housing recovery is resting on happier family homes market

The latest swathe of housing data continues to suggest a pick up both in prices and activity and the RICS November house price survey, released today, adds further weight to the case for a housing recovery. Its measures for sales, expected sales, new inquiries, new instructions, prices and expected prices are all in soundly positive territory, although the rate of improvement appears to have slackened. This survey follows the release of a stack of housing indices pointing upward on prices….

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Pre-Budget Report points to more money for construction…but a much bigger fall

Pre-Budget Report points to more money for construction…but a much bigger fall

Few would argue against the view that this set of Pre-Budget Report announcements has more to do with pre-electioneering that pre-budgeting. That’s fair enough. The Labour Party may not be in power to pursue its plans and, if it is after the next election, we don’t know how keen it will be to stick to them given a further five years to play with. The political desire to put the pain at the start rather than the end of a…

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